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How Sustainable Is Rush Poker?

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by on 03-19-2010 at 12:36 AM (1162 Views)
Copied from my Rush Poker blog

Full Tilt has been promoting their Rush Poker creation and working towards patenting it while they pat themselves on the back for a job well done.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves, here's why I believe Rush Poker doesn't have the longevity of "normal" poker.

While I agree this game is great for those who want to dive right in and enjoy action without any wait time, it has some inherent faults that I feel will cause it to fail in the near future.

Poker is a game about volume. In the short term, anyone can be a big winner. They may mistakenly attribute their short term success to their level of skill, when actually variance/luck was on their side and they ran well.

It's the long term that determines who wins and who loses in the end. And it used to be that getting to the long-term could take awhile, it's a lot of volume playing live or even online.

But with the Rush Poker concept, the long term is going to come significantly sooner. And while that's great for the winning players, at least at first, it also means the losing players will reach their long-term sooner as well, and thus be fleeced of their cash by the better players all the more quickly.

When this happens, those losing players may redeposit, or they may disappear altogether. If you fleece the losing players over an extended period of time they're less likely to take notice of their overall losses, making it easier for them to remain in action. But if they lose and lose and lose all the more quickly, it's significantly more likely they will notice this and be less likely to redeposit and keep playing.

Regardless, I think with the long-term being reached sooner, the games profitability will also drop sooner, resulting in tighter games and less fish.

How that can remain sustainable as a popular format will be the challenge that Full Tilt faces. It was certainly innovative, but how can they combat the quicker reduction of the fish pool in these games?

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Comments

  1. wjb316's Avatar
    That's a good question but I am sure Rush Poker will be here for a long time. The fish and pure gamblers aren't always as rational as we imagine. It's all about having fun and jumping right in.

    Like someone said in your blog post, the craps tables always have someone standing in line. And craps is known to be unbeatable. With poker, people know they at least have a chance.

    The games will get a little tighter over the long run but not ridiculously tight. There is always someone willing to jump on and play. From Full Tilt's perspective, it's all about the rake.

    Also from Full Tilt's perspective, the fact that players reach the "long term" sooner is good due to the rake. They get that money now as opposed to later. On one hand there's a chance the fish notice and stop redepositing but on the other hand, it might mean they redeposit sooner. Some of those fish may even decide they need to work on their game and they become tight grinders who generate even more rake.
  2. PokerNations's Avatar
    I think one of the reason fish remain in the game for an extended period of time is that they don't notice their losses most of the time.

    If you ask a losing player if they're winning or losing you'll often here:

    I'm about even

    or

    I'm up/down a little



    They don't really pay much attention or keep records/stats. But when you provide them with the volume and quickness of something like Rush Poker, you run the risk of making them catch on that they aren't all that good at poker and are bleeding money at the tables.

    While some may adjust and learn from it, and some who are gambling and don't care will continue to do so, I still feel the larger segment of fish will be overfished from this sort of game too early.
  3. Jeremy's Avatar
    I think RushPoker will inevitably tighten up over time, however I don't think it will ever dry up. I am a prime example and player type that is perfect for Rush.

    I am not a professional player, nor am I a winning player for that matter. However I like RushPoker for the action and exact reasons you stated.

    The RushPoker concept is great for a player like me. It allows me the opportunity to see lots of hands and in the short term see some nice swings. Although I do think losing players like myself could lose their "bankrolls" much quicker, the fact is that the limits right now only go as high as 1-2NL. These lower limits are no doubt intentional and for this reason by Fulltilt.

    Likewise I think many players at these lower limits offered on Rush fund their poker playing hobby through other income sources and thus will always have fresh money to deposit and play.

    I do agree though that it will be interesting to see how this sustains itself over the next couple years. My biggest fear is that they will slowly raise the limits (which will break many players) or that the games will become so tight, they won't even be attractive to the fish and action seekers like myself.

    From an affiliate standpoint, I am just waiting for the day that we get an email stating our payout will only be 12% MGR on RushPoker games or some new ridiculous clause like that. Would anyone really even be surprised?

    Great post.
  4. Catfish's Avatar
    And then there is one point which is paramount for FT: by offering this format, they can increase their share of the market (at least for a while, because I can't see how they want to keep other rooms from offering a similar format - I don't think you can get a patent on this).
    While the effect of players reaching the short term earlier, as the OP described, may be bad for the industry as a whole, the FT as an individual room will benefit from the effect of more rake and a bigger share of the market.

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