Odds to win CAL Bracket Contest

[Prop]

** Do not read this post, if you don't want to know if you've been eliminated **

Only 3 people still in contention here is probabilities of winning and method needed to clinch victory:

Jim Griffin - 48.8% (exact calculation based on market)
To clinch: North Carolina and Connecticut win this evening.

Ryan Knuppel - 31.9% (estimated via current and futures market)
To Clinch: Nova wins tonight (probability = 24.1%) -or- North Carolina and Michigan State win tonight and Michigan State wins in final

Justin - 19.3% (estimated via current and futures market)
To clinch: Needs to win out (3-0) = North Carolina & Michigan State in finals ( probability = 27.3%) and North Carolina to Win

(Note: +/- 3% on Ryan and Justin's figures based on futures estimates)

These are the odds only as of today. For me the odds are simple win both tonight and I clinch, otherwise I'm out. For Ryan if Nova wins tonight he clinches - otherwise he is big dog. If Justin wins both tonight it goes to the final game and he'll be big favorite.

Yes, very small brag - but wouldn't post this if it wasn't for having done the math and double checking who is eliminated and hopefully saving someone else time if they're thinking about doing same..

Anyways thanks CAL for the contest and good luck to those left.

[Gydian]

I can't see Conn winning. I think we're gunna see Mich and UNC in the finals. Regardless, she's gunna be close.

No matter what happens, it was awesome and I look forward to doing this again next year.

[Prop]

Good call Gydian and Good Luck guys.

Separate from this contest, but F*** i really underestimated Michigan State. I figured heading into the tournament they hadn't really beat anyone all year other than Texas who was mega overrated as well, so offered them on an exchange at start of tournament. So now pretty much if they win out I take a huge beating. So go anyone but MCST in final

[MJ]

We know you need those dual monitors man, take it down and GL!

[Knup]

Well NOVA sucks.... At least I still have a chance... Small chance Go Spartans!

[Knup]

Alright... Comes down to this. Need Spartans for the Dual monitors... Izzo Mania!

[imported_Tommy]

This is going to be a great game to watch tonight. Anyone think Michigan State can pull it off?

[Gydian]

I'd love to see Mich St. win. That'd be an amazing upset.

[Greg]

I dont think there a chance in the world that Michigan State will win. However, it's going to be fun to see and someone here is going to be the big winner! Good Luck all!

[Prop]

Congrats Justin