** Do not read this post, if you don't want to know if you've been eliminated **
Only 3 people still in contention here is probabilities of winning and method needed to clinch victory:
Jim - 48.8% (exact calculation based on market)
To clinch: North Carolina and Connecticut win this evening.
Ryan - 31.9% (estimated via current and futures market)
To Clinch: Nova wins tonight (probability = 24.1%) -or- North Carolina and Michigan State win tonight and Michigan State wins in final
Justin - 19.3% (estimated via current and futures market)
To clinch: Needs to win out (3-0) = North Carolina & Michigan State in finals ( probability = 27.3%) and North Carolina to Win
(Note: +/- 3% on Ryan and Justin's figures based on futures estimates)
These are the odds only as of today. For me the odds are simple win both tonight and I clinch, otherwise I'm out. For Ryan if Nova wins tonight he clinches - otherwise he is big dog. If Justin wins both tonight it goes to the final game and he'll be big favorite.
Yes, very small brag - but wouldn't post this if it wasn't for having done the math and double checking who is eliminated and hopefully saving someone else time if they're thinking about doing same..
Anyways thanks CAL for the contest and good luck to those left.