Mega Noob Question about Rev Share

[mdm13]

I understand how rev-share makes sense in the poker world, but what about in scenarios where someone plays against the house and can win? I'm assuming that the casinos aren't nice enough to calculate your earnings based off of EV, but I also think it would be a bit absurd if you are a big affiliate and you have 20k of referrals and then someone hits the jackpot for 40k and poof all your earnings are gone.

And if that is the case, does it reset at somepoint, or do you have to earn your way back into the positive? No need to explain variance to me, I'm a long time poker pro, I get that in the long run you and the casino will both win, I'm just curious because this has the potential to greatly change what games one promotes.

[GregW]

You're right, at some affiliate programs the negative earnings will reset to zero at the end of the month. It's referred to as "no negative carryover". Therefore, if a player hits a huge jackpot and wipes out your earnings, you won't earn anything that month, but the next month you start from zero again and wont have to work anything off.

Not all affiliate programs offer this though. Bet365 and Bodog are two prime examples.

FWIW I think PartyPartners calculate earnings based off of EV, or something similar to it. However, I've heard it doesn't seem to pay as well as the standard MGR method.

[mdm13]

You're right, at some affiliate programs the negative earnings will reset to zero at the end of the month. It's referred to as "no negative carryover". Therefore, if a player hits a huge jackpot and wipes out your earnings, you won't earn anything that month, but the next month you start from zero again and wont have to work anything off.

Not all affiliate programs offer this though. Bet365 and Bodog are two prime examples.

FWIW I think PartyPartners calculate earnings based off of EV, or something similar to it. However, I've heard it doesn't seem to pay as well as the standard MGR method.

That's very interesting, because the incentives seem a bit out of whack. If they reset at the end of a month and someone wins big at one site early in the month the rational thing to do would be to start sending your leads to a different site. And if someone really wins big and it doesn't reset at some point then a lot of people might just say fuck it and stop promoting that site or acquire a second account. Maybe party poker does EV with a few "insurance" percentage points taken off the top, which at least to me, the noob, seems rational.

[addaminsane]

so how do jackpots work then? I always thought that a jackpot had a standard amount of the wager that contributed to its rise, therefore a 40k jackpot wouldn't necessarily be a 40k hit against the casino.

[Prenut]

You're right, at some affiliate programs the negative earnings will reset to zero at the end of the month. It's referred to as "no negative carryover". Therefore, if a player hits a huge jackpot and wipes out your earnings, you won't earn anything that month, but the next month you start from zero again and wont have to work anything off.

Not all affiliate programs offer this though. Bet365 and Bodog are two prime examples.

FWIW I think PartyPartners calculate earnings based off of EV, or something similar to it. However, I've heard it doesn't seem to pay as well as the standard MGR method.

PartyPartners and associated brands (PartyBets, PartyCasino, Gamebookers, etc) originally used the EV method, which was terrible. They switched over to the net loss/win method some time ago. With that being said, the numbers there have always been horrid. Something just isn't right, as I have seen it go months on end with negatives. I still believe that their system is fucked up - something just didn't calculate/report right when pulling data from player accounts and assigning to the associated affiliate account. I have asked for a deposit/withdrawal log for all of my players, and have been promised it a few times. I still have never received it.

[mdm13]

PartyPartners and associated brands (PartyBets, PartyCasino, Gamebookers, etc) originally used the EV method, which was terrible. They switched over to the net loss/win method some time ago. With that being said, the numbers there have always been horrid. Something just isn't right, as I have seen it go months on end with negatives. I still believe that their system is fucked up - something just didn't calculate/report right when pulling data from player accounts and assigning to the associated affiliate account. I have asked for a deposit/withdrawal log for all of my players, and have been promised it a few times. I still have never received it.

What's wrong with the EV method aside from you think something isn't right with their accounting? I mean if everything was on the up and up and they paid you true EV, wouldn't this be the best option?

[Prenut]

What's wrong with the EV method aside from you think something isn't right with their accounting? I mean if everything was on the up and up and they paid you true EV, wouldn't this be the best option?

No, it wouldn't be. The EV method pays you based upon the EV of perfect play in the game. Humans don't play perfectly and lose more than the EV method states they should. Worse yet, some places used to use the same EV calculation for each game based upon the lowest EV bet in the entire casino. You don't want the EV method, as it's never going to be figured properly to maximize your revenues.

[mdm13]

No, it wouldn't be. The EV method pays you based upon the EV of perfect play in the game. Humans don't play perfectly and lose more than the EV method states they should. Worse yet, some places used to use the same EV calculation for each game based upon the lowest EV bet in the entire casino. You don't want the EV method, as it's never going to be figured properly to maximize your revenues.

Oh, interesting, I assumed it would be based off of the EV of the decisions not the house edge overall.

[casinodave]

About 5 years ago I asked a few different programs to reset my negative, and most of them did it...later on though I realized that all my best players won big early. Give me a big winner any day, it often produces the kind of player that will drop 5k+ a month for a while. even if you have to deal with negative carryover, I would take the revshare everytime.

new player deposits 3000 and wins 10000
next month player loses 13000+deposits and loses another 34000
rev share earnings: 14K+
CPA earnings - $100