BubbleProtection - Thoughts

[Jeremy]

So I have been reading about this new site BubbleProtection.com. Seems like an interesting concept in the industry for the hard core tournament players. Personally I don't play enough online poker or bubble enough tournies that it would make sense for me. For those of you degens who still grind it out, what do you think. Does it make sense from an ROI perspective? Is it something you woud use?

Also I have no relationship with these guys and have never even spoken with anyone from the company, I just found it interesting so I figured I'd throw it out there and get a conversation going.

Discuss

[Stocks]

It's an interesting concept because it will give you an advantage over players who don't have it.

Say if your playing the Sunday million with 7000 players approx 1000 will make the money and if you have the insurance 1000-1700 will get the entry fee back. I estimated the fee for the Sunday Million to be around $25 with an entry fee of $220 you would have to finish in the bubble every one out of 9 times.

Anyway the advantage would be that you make the money 700 spots before everyone else so you can take more chances if your short or medium stacked while a lot of the other players will be just holding on to make the cash.

I think this would be very good for tight players

[Catfish]

Well if the experience from live tournaments says anything about this: whenever collecting some money for the bubble right before the burts was suggested, I have almost never seen a player who didn't agree to it. So, yes I think if this idea were properly marketed, I think it could be a success.
And I agree with Stocks that this would have a lot of appeal for tight players, because they are the one who tend to tighten up even more in bubble situations, result being that they give up too much of their stack, to the effect that the have a lesser chance to conquer the top spots.

[baldidiot]

Well if the experience from live tournaments says anything about this: whenever collecting some money for the bubble right before the burts was suggested, I have almost never seen a player who didn't agree to it. So, yes I think if this idea were properly marketed, I think it could be a success.
And I agree with Stocks that this would have a lot of appeal for tight players, because they are the one who tend to tighten up even more in bubble situations, result being that they give up too much of their stack, to the effect that the have a lesser chance to conquer the top spots.

Actually, that's a good point - I've found it quite common for people to agree that the person to go out on the bubble gets their entry fee back out of the prize fund.

[thefarang]

Well, Jeremy, you do know me (and perhaps Hilly) and we started Beat the Bubble several months before Bubble Protection. Actually, it was an idea Hilly and I had a long time ago and we just kept scratching our heads and asking why someone wasn't offering it. At some point we got tired of asking and we built it.

BP does a good job but I think they make a mistake in selling it as something that is +EV. Obviously it can't be +EV if we're making money. We had an actuarial come up with the models we use to price the insurance which covers our risk and a small profit margin.

But like Stocks says, it does allow tight players to open up their game more near the bubble knowing they're going to get paid while everyone else is still holding on hoping to slide into the money. Also, some rooms carry BtB insurance in their online store so you can purchase the insurance for points.

A group that seems to find it attractive are those who have satellited into a bigger buy-in tournament. For a couple of bucks they can increase their odds of getting their buy-in back. For instance, let's say you play some crazy super-sat for $2 and win a $500 entry into a big Sunday event. You can buy insurance for a few bucks and increase your odds of at least getting the $500.

[jdwanchalk]

I admittedly didn't not look into this terribly deep, but I never understood the premise in that you are just creating a new bubble (and for an added price, too). No?

[thefarang]

I admittedly didn't not look into this terribly deep, but I never understood the premise in that you are just creating a new bubble (and for an added price, too). No?

Pretty much. It's not really designed for your MTT grinder who is looking to increase his win rate. This is mostly a tool for people who are looking for any little edge they can get to make it into the money. Most people play poker for the entertainment value. Only around 10% are good enough to make money playing. This is geared at the other 90% who just hope to make a little here and there.

[jdwanchalk]

Pretty much. It's not really designed for your MTT grinder who is looking to increase his win rate. This is mostly a tool for people who are looking for any little edge they can get to make it into the money. Most people play poker for the entertainment value. Only around 10% are good enough to make money playing. This is geared at the other 90% who just hope to make a little here and there.

But then isn't that like trying to sell PokerTracker to "casual" players? I am just curious how it could target players who don't have a primary interest in getting better/winning, yet still be interesting to them. I guess it's like trying to sell a dyno to a guy who has a Corvette but just likes it for its looks.

Maybe you answered your own question in why it doesn't exist. I always thought a sort of bad beat insurance was more viable than this, but it would fail for the same reasons. Idk.

[thefarang]

It's an easier to understand concept than PT for many players. "If the tournament only pays out 100 players and I'm the XXXth player, you'll still pay me?"

It's not really intended to be a huge product. It fills a certain niche and is aimed specifically at people with a certain mindset. We don't have an office with 100 employees or huge overhead to cover so we don't need to sell thousands of policies a day to keep the lights on.

I will say that Black Friday sort of killed some plans we had. We had targeted some partnerships that would have driven a lot more exposure for the product but BF made everybody pull back a bit. We're still working on those but there's understandably a completely different mentality about it post-BF.

[Catfish]

I admittedly didn't not look into this terribly deep, but I never understood the premise in that you are just creating a new bubble (and for an added price, too). No?

You would (playing live) if you agreed on that long before the bubble. But live, this happens almost always when there is exactly one player left to eliminate (or two, in which case the bubble money could be split).

Playing online and having this insurance, no you don't create another bubble. The other players may not have insurance, and in the time before the bubble situation is there, you can just go and play your usual game (as will the others).