UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar (3-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) possesses one of the best wrestling pedigrees in the UFC, and I'm not referring to his status as a three-time WWE "champion." Lesnar was a four-time collegiate All-American, a two-time Big Ten champion and the 2000 NCAA Division I heavyweight wrestling champion for the Minnesota Golden Gophers while amassing a 106–5 amateur wrestling record in four years of college.
Lesnar is extremely athletically gifted, exceptionally strong, uncannily fast, incredibly explosive and unbelievably built. His 4XL MMA gloves are the same size used by the behemoth Hong Man Choi, who is 7-foot-2.
Interim heavyweight champion Mir (12-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC) is a skilled grappler, holding a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Ricardo Pires. Mir has long been known for having a small gas tank, both before and after his infamous 2004 motorcycle accident that resulted in Mir being stripped of his heavyweight title due to his inability to defend the belt. Mir is a jiu-jitsu technician, but he lacks wrestling skills and elite striking skills.
Don't be confused by Mir's most recent performance, his one-sided beatdown of Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira. As many suspected, Nogueira finally outlined after the fact that he was suffering from a severe illness and a severe staph infection, both of which required hospitalization after the fight. "Minotauro" had absolutely no business being in the cage that night, and Mir's victory has to be largely disregarded since he wasn't fighting a capable opponent but a shambling, static punching bag with no ability to fight back.
Mir is a southpaw, which actually works well for Lesnar, who likes to lead with the straight right, the traditional boxing counter to the southpaw stance. Lesnar's incredible speed, athleticism and power should allow him to absolutely decimate Mir on the feet. Lesnar's edge in wrestling is so tremendous that he can dictate where the fight takes place the entire time. I don't think Mir would be physically capable of getting the fight to the ground if Lesnar was forced to fight with both knees on the ground the entire time. Still, Lesnar's likely dominance in the standup game doesn't mean that this fight will necessarily stay standing. If Lesnar wants to take the fight to the ground, Mir can do absolutely nothing to stop him. There, Lesnar will have learned his lesson from the first fight: no silly attempts to pass guard or leave dangerous openings for his opponent to exploit. Lesnar can simply overwhelm Mir with his athleticism and speed, whether standing or on the ground.
This fight opened at Lesnar -185. The opening line was hit incredibly hard, running Lesnar up to -300. Since that peak, money has steadily come in on Mir, bringing the line back to its current position. Despite the significant discrepancy in submission skills, and despite the outcome of the first fight, I believe the current Lesnar line to be amazingly mispriced (and the opening line obviously even more so).
I believe Lesnar has significantly evolved as a mixed martial artist since his first fight with Mir. Mir proponents are strongly overvaluing that first outcome; Lesnar was absolutely dominating every second of the first fight before a chain reaction created by a highly questionable standup plus a rookie grappling mistake (putting his hands on Mir's chest and standing up from side control) combined with a classic experience mistake (i.e. not effectively transitioning from training mode to fight mode due to lack of experience). Even with only the little jiu-jitsu training he had at the time, Lesnar should have been able to attempt to fight through the kneebar at least a little. Instead it appeared to me that, in addition to ignoring the obviously telegraphed and achingly slow submission attempt, he panicked and immediately tapped, the way you're taught to tap immediately to leg pain in practice to avoid any serious injury.
I believe Mir proponents are also significantly overvaluing the Nogueira fight. Any attempt to gather meaningful information from Mir's performance there is extremely misguided due to Nogueira's condition and illnesses.
I believe Lesnar to be more effectively greater than an 80 percent favorite to win this fight, which presents a fantastic betting opportunity at the current line.
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Originally Posted by Jeremy
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