Conversion rate question

[pokerextras]

I've just got to number 1 for a term that gets 50k exact monthly searches, according to google adwords. It's a relivitely good premium term. I'll use full tilt as a relevant example.

My very basic math tells me that i should get 40% of that traffic from position 1, or 20k visitors. Even at a 1% conversion rate, that should get me 200 monthly sign ups. Is that about right in everybody elses experience?

[addaminsane]

from what i've seen lately, you'll bounce around on the first page with other competitors for that term quite a bit. i'm not certain about this, but if the last 7 days are any indication... particularly if you just reached #1 for the first time as well.

i think from that point the conversion rate depends on the diversity of CTAs you have that would catch the eye of the type of user coming to your site searching that keyword.

200 sign-ups per month at 1%, congrats if you stay at number one, but 1% is pretty low, you could be potentially raking it in with this keyword with a diverse cta strategy.

I know alot of webmasters experience that "poker rules", or "strategy", has low conversion power, but with the recent boom in online poker training, its much easier to get some type of conversion with those terms with the presence of the free full tilt academy, or paid online poker training recommendations.

thats simply an example of a low converting keyword, i would think about trying to figure out how to maximize that traffic. If you need me to make you some custom banners that would cater to this traffic shoot me a pm, i;ll hook you up

[pokerextras]

I'm not too concerned about the ranking or conversions. Ranking is easy, and conversions should take care of themselves. If the term gets as much traffic as it should, i'll take over positions 2 and 3 as well as i bought the .com, .org and .net at the same time.

What i'm more concerned about is google adwords to be honest. If the term gets 50k monthly searches according to adwords, and number 1 should expect 40%, then 20k visitors divided by 30 days is around 660 visitors per day, but i spent my first day at number 1 yesterday, and didn't get anywhere near that amount of traffic. I'm hoping that the lower traffic is because it isn't number 1 in every country/datacentre yet, but this isn't the first time that i've seen traffic stats which differ wildly to adwords data.

[CK]

Remember what you see isn't what everyone else sees. You might see #1 but someone searching on a different dc may see a competitor or two above you.

*also I know its a gay question but are you sure your personalized search is turned off*

[CK]

wrong thread - mods delete please - to many open windows

[pokerextras]

Yeah, you're right in regards to people seeing different results, but it's not a variation in rankings. I've had people in different countries check it out, and it's either number 1, or page z. I guess i'll just have to wait until all of the data centres catch up before i worry about it too much.

[addaminsane]

BTW, google adwords estimate is way way over bloated. for example, i run an exact match .com that is two words and solid number 1 for the term which adwords estimates at 33,000 for plural and 27,000 for singular monthly. the site receives about 6-12 hits per day for the keyword without fail.

[pokerextras]

BTW, google adwords estimate is way way over bloated. for example, i run an exact match .com that is two words and solid number 1 for the term which adwords estimates at 33,000 monthly. the site receives about 6-12 hits per day for the keyword without fail.

Wow! So instead of the expected 13k monthly hits, you're get about 300? That's really downheartning. Adwords really can't be that far wrong though. There has to be some other factors involved somewhere. Are you sure that it gets 33k exact searches. Not broad ones? That could mean that another similar term is recieving the bulk of the traffic.