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  1. #1
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    Default Question about Aussie Dollar

    Can you see the AUD coming back to parity with the USD any time soon?

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    No unfortunatley
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    I thought is just about was already?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ramchip View Post
    I thought is just about was already?
    Hasn't been parity for 3 months.

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    it real close

    Australian Dollar (AUD) 10.00

    United States Dollar (USD) 10.67

    tried it out thru Convert Australian Dollars (AUD) and United States Dollars (USD): Currency Exchange Rate Conversion Calculator
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    No - I dont see the AUD going back to parity - I see the AUD increasing against the USD in the medium term.

    THe Australian dollar - and most other currencies - will continue to appreciate against the US dollar while the US continues with it's program of quantitative easing ...

    Quantitative easing simply means that the US Federal reserve is printing trillions and trillions of extra dollars (and a trillion is a thousand billions!!) without actually increasing US industrial output - the upshot is there are more dollars - but each of the dollars are actually worth less.

    So until the US stops the printing presses and raises interest rates, there is no incentive for non-US companies or residents to hold the US currency - and that is what is pushing the US dollar down.

    note : It's actually this fact that is seeing the rapid incrase in the price of gold and silver (50-100% in the last two years respecitvely) - it's not that gold and silver are suddenly worth more - it's just that it takes more US dollars to buy the same amount.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGooner View Post
    note : It's actually this fact that is seeing the rapid incrase in the price of gold and silver (50-100% in the last two years respecitvely) - it's not that gold and silver are suddenly worth more - it's just that it takes more US dollars to buy the same amount.
    may sound like a dumb question, but why is there a correlation between the USD and the price of gold and silver?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGooner View Post
    note : It's actually this fact that is seeing the rapid incrase in the price of gold and silver (50-100% in the last two years respecitvely) - it's not that gold and silver are suddenly worth more - it's just that it takes more US dollars to buy the same amount.
    may sound like a dumb question, but why is there a correlation between the USD and the price of gold and silver?

    is it because there is more demand for commodities now since the USD is losing value?

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    Quote Originally Posted by pokeraussie View Post
    may sound like a dumb question, but why is there a correlation between the USD and the price of gold and silver?
    Because its counted in the $, the actual money US $. It goes up because the US keeps printing money which make the $ less valuable and because the gold thing work in that currency you always see the increase. (there is also supply demand thing but I think the $ is the main one) At the end of the day money is paper that we have a choice to believe in. Don't think were capable of getting away from it.
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    There is significant weakness around the Australian $ and that being we are one step away from officially being labelled in recession after having a negative growth quarter last quarter.

    While the commodities have driven the $ higher, the real estate market has contributed significantly and while 10% reversals have been seen is some cities, there is way more clawback to be seen esp. in WA. Add to that weak new home loan and building approvals and the Labour governments Carbon Tax combined with their complete ineptitiude to manage the national economy and I see Australia slipping back siginificantly.

    In terms of the Aussie $ vs US$ - it's just a question of if our slide will be faster than the US drop which is showing little signs of abating, but if the Chinese economy falters, which is highly likely imo as it is basically built upon a house of cards - then the $Aussie is a very good chance of dropping against the majors - especially the Euro and Pound.

    I doubt we'll ever see the days of $Au 0.48 vs $US 1 ever again.
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