NFL Week 15 Bets

[pokerprop]

Getting this thread started a week early in case anyone wants to discuss picks in advanced. For Week 14 I found the thread after the games had already started.

There are a few games that caught my interest right off the bat.

Chiefs +4 +100 (Pinnacle) vs San Diego Chargers

This is a sure play. Public perception is that the Chargers are back after a dominating HOME performance against one of the worst teams on a night the fans had no other games to watch. With their chances at the playoffs pretty much eliminated, and heading into a stadium that is traditionally difficult for road teams.. I can't understand them being such a big favorite here - yes I understand the Chiefs suck, but I'll take them anytime at home in a meaningless game getting 4 points especially considering all the other surrounding circumstances while playing the wishywashy chargers.

I'm still going to sit on this line though in hopes it gets better. There are not many KC backers still firing but the Chargers have a much more enthusiastic fan base that might get us an extra juice free half point here and who know maybe even better if a couple touts jump on them as well.

Oakland Raiders +7 -104 vs Patriots

This one is close as is, if the line gets to +7.5 -110 or better this is an auto bet in my opionion. Again its the same reason, Public perception is the Raiders just got spanked in a heavily watched game. Most NFL teams bounce back from this. The Pats did have a couple impressive wins on the road considering their injuries, but they have a banged up team and played in a tough game again this week where they got even more banged up. I predict the Raiders come out for this game, keep it close, a tough enviroment for the Pats who will be lucky to squeak by with 3-7 point win and could very well get upset in this game.

As soon as I see +7.5 or better I'm on this one.

That's all I see interesting for right now.

[Stocks]

Good idea starting this thread early I have'nt looked at the games yet might have a couple picks later today or tomorrow.

[Jeremy]

I'll post my bets on Staurday, bet all the opposites and you'll probably win. NFL betting gets harder now I think than ever before. So many playoff implications.

[pokerprop]

I'm happy to see the line for the Chiefs getting better.
The current situation for me now is fire a unit if it hits +6 -110, fire another 1/2 at +6.5 and another full it hits +7, and yet another half if it hits +7.5 meaning this could be as much as a 3 unit bet this week.
If at game time they haven't reach 6 yet and are +4.5 to +5.5 it will be a one unit play.

Not much movement on the Raiders yet, I think this one could still move either way. I'm going to risk waiting till Thursday and if its still at +7 I will bet 1/2 a unit. I don't want to miss it at +7 but I also don't want this to be a multi unit bet so I want to save myself the room to place the second 1/2 unit at game time should the line be the same or better, and should it be worst will just pass on it and leave it as a half unit play.

[Stocks]

I bet a few games already

Atlanta -3 +100 - Atlanta is a good home team 5-1 while Tampa are not very good on the road 3-4.

NY Jets -7 -110 - I dont usually bet big favorites but Farve and the Jets can put up some points while the Bills have looked like the worst team in NFL history the past 2 weeks only scoring 6 points combined in both those games so I think the Jets should'nt have much trouble covering the 7 points.

Baltimore u34 -110 - Two of the best defense's going heads up in this one so I dont see much scoring at all.

I'm also keeping an eye on KC seeing where that line moves

[pokerprop]

Taking Raiders +7 now for 1 unit.

Unfortunately I have feeling ESPN is going to be with me on this one which sucks. Its usually +EV to go against any upsets they predict, but last week the ruined the value on Lions though it still worked and have a feeling another rare case where ESPN touts the right side again.

Not going to risk waiting, maybe squares still hit page but grabbing it now.

[Tom]

I think the Pats will win by more than 7.

Raiders are bad and Pats are due for a blowout win. I'll post my picks later in the week.

[pokerprop]

Matt Cassel's dad just died, likely will be Kevin O'Connell as QB. It used to feel like taking advantage of someones loss to me, but its just business lines are going to be up to bet regardless and sucks for him.

I'd take the raiders here at w/e line was up on Tuesday even if Brady was QB. This is profitable situation in NFL for reasons previously explained. Even if they get blow out, still profitable situation over long haul.

[Jeremy]

Thoughts on the Bears/Saints tomorrow night? Obviously a big game for us and I will probably throw down some money just to add to the excitement.

I have the Bears -3 with an O/U at 45. Not sure which way to go here. Probably throwing $20 out the window........standard.

But feel free to give your expert pick on this game.

[pokerprop]

The Bears/Saint lines seems about right to me. With this being a home team fan pick, think you're in an okay spot because even if both sides are -EV I'd lean the Bears are less so and if you enjoy the action you really can't lose much .

The most interesting factor so far about this game is how evenly both the total number of bets and money has been early. A lot of early money came in on the saints but was near immediately offset. If I had to pick a side on this one i'd go with whichever gets better on exchanges before game time, if I had to pick now I'd just go with Bears who are at home and a bit less than a FG favorite (-3 +105 some places). Thankfully I don't have to pick on this game because both these teams can be very unpredictable (like to see a prop bet o/u line on turnovers) and this could get out of hand with either side winning big.