Turning Stone Trip Report

[pokeraussie]

Umm, how? You are saying you are missing value because they will fold.

[jdwanchalk]

Umm, how? You are saying you are missing value because they will fold.

Ok...

You should be comparing one option against another, what you are doing is looking at an option in a vacuum.

If someone told you that you won $100 on a scratch off ticket, surely you would be happy. But if you had know that another ticket would have won you $1,000, you would have chosen the other ticket instead.

A c-bet might be profitable, but it is not the BEST option.

If I c-bet and get called it means that I will need to try to push someone off their hand later on if I miss my draws.

If I c-bet and get a fold I win a small pot.

If I c-bet and get raised I will need to shove and flip a coin at best (no, bad draws will not often call or check raise that flop).

If I check I can win a big pot against sets that slowplayed, big pocket pairs that slowplayed, straights or two pair combinations that slow play when I hit my hand.

If I check I can win/lose a big pot against sets that slowplayed, big pocket pairs that slowplayed, straights or two pair combinations that slow play when I raise the turn all in and maximize my equity.

The last two options are far and away better alternatives to the first three results if I c-bet.


It is BIG WIN, BIG WIN, BIG LOSS with checking back.

It is BIG LOSS, MODERATE WIN, SMALL WIN with a c-bet, with a very random BIG WIN.

Weigh those options. My play is more high variance, perhaps, but it also has a much better expectation.

[pokeraussie]

i guess we are coin flipping...

Board: 2d 4s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.699% 49.66% 01.04% 22616 472.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 49.301% 48.26% 01.04% 21979 472.50 { TT+, 66-22, QdJd }

i realize you should always be thinking whats the best way to get maximum value, i just thought on this type of board you rarely get a fold so you should bet. anyway, was a good discussion, hehe.