My theme this week is small favorites. However if you look at the board that's what it consists of this week, nine of this week 14 games have spreads of 2.5 to 3.5. So it makes sense that I'll be teasing the dogs I find value on and betting the favorites I bet value on. Look any other week in NFL and see bets on four small favorites and it looks super square, but for this week it is what it is.
Anyways I have 4 straight bets which are below, and one teaser listed down post.
Bet #1 Titans -3 -104 (Pinnacle)
Bet #2 Packers -2.5 -110 (2BetDsi.com)
Bet #3 Buccs -3 +110 (2BetDsi.com)**SEE NOTE**
Bet #4 Bears -2.5 -117 (Pinnacle)
Buccs: often I will buy a line of -3 +110 down to the -2.5 price. In this spot I am not an I'm also lowering my risk. My bet is risk 0.91 bets to win 1 bet. In a low scoring game this is generally worth it. However right now the best line I could find for -2.5 was -117. At 27 cents different its not worth it. I might consider it @ 25 cents, but here I'll happily save money on a loss by risking less exchanging a win for a push in process on the 3.
Bet #5 3 Team 6 Point Teaser Risk 0.56 bets to win 1.01 bets
Patriots +9, Panthers +9, Broncos -2
Important: You need to do this at a site that offer +180 on three team teasers. For me I made the bet at Diamond (2betdsi.com). Also be careful not to do this at a site that has Broncos -9 as the base line. You must get a line of Broncos -2.5 or better, and a line of Pats/Panthers +7.5 or better and pay +180 only. People mess this one one up a lot when not understanding. Of course you also want to get better than those lines I mentioned, but if you can't beat them while still getting +180 don't make this bet.
Also note I am betting only 0.56 bets on this. This is an action play for me looking to get action on more games to make it profitable. Most consider these bets +EV 100% of the time because are "wong teasers" I do a lot of teasers using the same concept and math behind wong, but am not a blind wong bettor. I just wanted the extra action on what should be a +EV bet but not going to risk a full unit on it.
YTD Stats Coming Into this Week, on picks posted on PAL
31-13 (+16.19 Bets)
Sides 28-10, Teasers 3-2, Totals 0-1
Profit by Week
Week 1 = +3.95 bets
Week 2 = +0.56 bets
Week 3 = +1.75 bets
Week 4 = +1.23 bets
Week 5 = +5.89 bets
Week 6 = +2.81 bets