NFL Week 7

[Prop]

My theme this week is small favorites. However if you look at the board that's what it consists of this week, nine of this week 14 games have spreads of 2.5 to 3.5. So it makes sense that I'll be teasing the dogs I find value on and betting the favorites I bet value on. Look any other week in NFL and see bets on four small favorites and it looks super square, but for this week it is what it is.

Anyways I have 4 straight bets which are below, and one teaser listed down post.

Bet #1 Titans -3 -104 (Pinnacle)
Bet #2 Packers -2.5 -110 (2BetDsi.com)
Bet #3 Buccs -3 +110 (2BetDsi.com)**SEE NOTE**
Bet #4 Bears -2.5 -117 (Pinnacle)

Some Notes:
Buccs: often I will buy a line of -3 +110 down to the -2.5 price. In this spot I am not an I'm also lowering my risk. My bet is risk 0.91 bets to win 1 bet. In a low scoring game this is generally worth it. However right now the best line I could find for -2.5 was -117. At 27 cents different its not worth it. I might consider it @ 25 cents, but here I'll happily save money on a loss by risking less exchanging a win for a push in process on the 3.

Bet #5 3 Team 6 Point Teaser Risk 0.56 bets to win 1.01 bets

Patriots +9, Panthers +9, Broncos -2

Important: You need to do this at a site that offer +180 on three team teasers. For me I made the bet at Diamond (2betdsi.com). Also be careful not to do this at a site that has Broncos -9 as the base line. You must get a line of Broncos -2.5 or better, and a line of Pats/Panthers +7.5 or better and pay +180 only. People mess this one one up a lot when not understanding. Of course you also want to get better than those lines I mentioned, but if you can't beat them while still getting +180 don't make this bet.

Also note I am betting only 0.56 bets on this. This is an action play for me looking to get action on more games to make it profitable. Most consider these bets +EV 100% of the time because are "wong teasers" I do a lot of teasers using the same concept and math behind wong, but am not a blind wong bettor. I just wanted the extra action on what should be a +EV bet but not going to risk a full unit on it.

YTD Stats Coming Into this Week, on picks posted on PAL

31-13 (+16.19 Bets)
Sides 28-10, Teasers 3-2, Totals 0-1

Profit by Week

Week 1 = +3.95 bets
Week 2 = +0.56 bets
Week 3 = +1.75 bets
Week 4 = +1.23 bets
Week 5 = +5.89 bets
Week 6 = +2.81 bets

[Stocks]

I dont have any bets yet but theres a few I'm keeping an eye on.

Tampa Bay - I like the Bucs to win but not sure if I want to go to -3.

New England - I think NE wins outright but will probably take the points.

Pittsburgh - I dont usually like road favorites but I think this will definitly be a play.

Tennessee - I have looked into this game much but I do like the Titans at -3

[KevinMcC]

Washington Redskins +3 -115
New England Patriots +2½ +100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 -125
Cincinnati Bengals +4½ -115
Miami Dolphins +3 -120
Oakland Raiders +8 -110

Those are my plays so far this week (most of them early lines) - I wish I put more on the Bucs as I was pretty sure the line would be moving clsoer to -2.5 or -3.


Adding - Titans -3 and GB -2.5 to follow Prop

[Prop]

Washington Redskins +3 -115
New England Patriots +2½ +100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 -125
Cincinnati Bengals +4½ -115
Miami Dolphins +3 -120
Oakland Raiders +8 -110

I like the three bolded picks.
Obviously you got an awesome line there with Buccs
For the others Raiders I was expecting to bet but how quickly the money poured in on Broncos (which isn't square money) I got scared and decided to wait. Then I ended up settling on small teaser bet using Broncos as one of the teams just to jump in on steam.
the Dolphins Bet that seems to be the initial sharp side. That's a game though I don't think I'll touch at all until the line is really sharp I mean just before kick off and will see if i like anything on closing line using any info I pick up between now and then, and otherwise if not pass.
I do like the picks though, can't follow them but like them.
Anyways good luck.

he Steelers and Dolphins game I'm pretty much resolved to layoff and not even consider until the market sharpens.

[KevinMcC]

Thanks for the insight bud. I wish I hammered the Bucs pick a little harder as I really like them outright at home in that game.

[Prop]

oops i actually meant to say awesome line with the Bengals. But yeah that's a great line on Buccs too

[Stocks]

After spending all week trying to figure out how to make my own lines for football I think I got something pretty good. I used a YPP or yards per point method using offensive and defensive numbers while intergrating SOS or strength or schedule into the mix.

The first set of numbers is just the YPP method and the 2nd set includes SOS. I did'nt have to do the first set using YPP method by itself but seeing its so easy to make a math mistake with the SOS its good to have something to check it with and that way you'll know if you fucked up somewhere.

(the YPP+SOS line is in bold)

PHI 19.5
TEN 23

PHI 18.5
TEN 26

CLE 15
NO 23

CLE 17
NO 20.5

WAS 16
CHI 21

WAS 16.5
CHI 20

STL 18
TB 19

STL 17.5
TB 20.5

SF 15.5
CAR 18

SF 17.5
CAR 18.5

OAK 20
DEN 24.5

OAK 18
DEN 27.5

MIN 16.5
GB 22

MIN 17.5
GB 21

JAC 17
KC 26

JAC 17.5
KC 25.5

CIN 17
ATL 22.5

CIN 16.5
ATL 23

PIT 21
MIA 16.5

PIT 20.5
MIA 17

BUF 15
BAL 27

BUF 15
BAL 27

ARI 17
SEA 25

ARI 17.5
SEA 25

NE 24.5
SD 26

NE 26.5
SD 24

NYG 21
DAL 21.5

NYG 19.5
DAL 22.5


These lines are still not ready to use for betting now you have to go back and ajust them for injurys and trends or situations that affect the game.

For example so far we have Seattle at -7.5 but theres a couple situations here that may come into play like Arizona comming off a bye week so lets say that worth one point and now we have Seattle -6.5. Theres one other situation in this game and thats that it is a division game and division games tend to be closer sometimes so we can make that worth one point aswell. Now that makes the line Seattle -5.5 and thats exactly where the line is so no value here.

I'm not making any bets based solely on this system this week but the games that show the most value is Tennesee, New England and Cleveland although Cleveland has some QB injury issues and I'd like to know whos starting before I make the final ajustment on this line

Tennessee (Books line -3 ) (Our Line -7.5) (Value +4.5)
New England (Books line +3) (Our Line -2.5) (Value +5.5)

As far as totals go I dont usually bet totals so I dont know what situations will effect the total so I cant ajust the totals line although if they show promise without any ajustments I may look at them a bit closer


Any feedback or comments are welcome especially on line ajustment factors.

[Prop]

Stocks not too many comments because not incredibly savvy with this. I do get lines for football from a stats geek I network with but I don't understand a lot about it. Passing what I know though:

He makes major adjustments prior to creating the base line in order to use the most meaningful yards. For example: NFL games are relatively short (compared to college) and a big play or two (especially fluke plays) corrupts the data.

Once he has the meaningful data his model bases off how teams performed against how the average team performs against teams they faced. Example is getting 4.4 yards per play against teams allowing 3.7 etc.

Once all his data is refined he runs it through computer simulations that quickly output final scores and predict a spread.

That's about what I know, and I don't understand half the things he says no matter what topic we discuss lol.

Outside that: I seem to recall discussions back (05 maybe?) on LVA about how to adjust the data. It was way beyond my level of understanding at the time, but I remember them being really precise about (Pythagorean to take care of rounding and other things similarly extreme). Also there was never a half point round. Lines were reflected in final format something like: Ducks 23.2 Bears 18.4

So really the only common theme between the two things here is adjusting the data to first get the most meaningful yards seems to be a major starting point.

This stuff is hard to find because no one doing it well is publishing books on it or anything. I'd guess the best way to tackle this would be to go back to old forums and weed through tons of discussions to pick up bits and pieces to start attempting to place into a model.

In the end any model that is working should end up with lines very close to the lines the closing lines after a period of time, as the market adjust it.

Anyways long post to say so little, but that's the gist of what I know on the topic.

[Prop]

One other thing to add. The reason a LOT of people do this stuff still is they are looking to find the effects of market movement on derivatives and find the angles there. For example if a point spread changes enough the total should also change. This is because one team is now more likely to score more, or the other team more likely to score less. The same also applies to moneyline, teasers, alternate point spreads etc.

In baseball this is even more important where there are many bets such as strike outs, pitches, spread, run line, first 5 inning, runs + hits + errors, head to head, team totals and the list goes on and on for wagering options. A move in one market follows a move in others. Tracking the source of money and moves and effects it has on derivatives in a base baseball is how many gurus predict markets and make their profit.

[Stocks]

Thanks Prop

The turnover/fluke play factor is something I was also thinking about but I'm just not sure how I would add it or if the system I'm currently using already incorperates it bit. I think this system is going to be a work in progress for the rest of the year.