NFL Week 12

[pokerprop]

2 Team 7 Point Teaser -130
Browns -2.5 / Broncos +3.5


Browns is +EV based on market moneyline. The broncos leg falls into an awkward situation I'd be happy to explain via PM if anyone is interested.

[Stocks]

Hey Prop I'm interested in the awarkard situation for the Broncos.

As far as picks go I've been busy with something this week so I only got a 2 team teaser

Pittsburgh -0.5
NY Giants -2.5

And Prop I also wanted to talk to you about key numbers for football seeing I guess you probably know the key number stats off hand.

I've been working on something and this year and the key numbers are

3 - 35 times
7 - 10 times
6 - 9 times
10 - 8 times
8 - 7 times

3 is by far the keyest number so buying to or off 2.5 or 3.5 seems to make a lot of sense but buying off or to 7 not so much and 7 dont seem to be much more key than 6,8,10 and 9 and 4 dont seem to be very key at all.

Not sure where I was going with all this but as far as teasers go it seems like the crossing the 3,6,7,8 would be the ideal 6 point teaser.

It also seems like crossing 3 twice would be a good 7 point teaser if you could get -3.5 and tease it to +3.5 or vise versa.

Just wondering about your thoughts on key numbers for teasing and buying points.

Thanks

[pokerprop]

I've written a detailed article on this for Kev, but haven't delivered to it him yet because its part of a bigger bundle. In another 20 minutes or so I'll have 9 of 11 complete and sure if he's interested in pimping his site for discussion here there could be a lot of interesting topics for us to discuss this is one of them.

What I'll share for now is crossing both threes goes against conventional wisdom everyone says it is a poor idea. There are exceptions they are wrong. When i get more time on my hands I'll share the specifics in private but with who I do please keep it self .

As far as what you're doing there for numbers yeah that's really important part of sports betting. Developing a push chart. However the push charts need to be as specific as possible. For example a 12 point favorite push on 2 is rare. I really want to develop an advanced tool for this someday, but not sure how much it will cost or how to go about it.

Anyways for NFL teaser say teasing an 8 point favorite. Go back say to 2006 find all favorites -7.5 to -9.5 put the box scores into a spreadsheet, calculate margin of victory and sort. Now count how often they pushed on 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2. Add those numbers together and get a percent..

In three team teasers +180. Break even at +180 need to win 35.71% of the time. To calculate how often each team needs to win to break even we need to know what number times itself three times =0.3571. So we need the cub root which is 0.7094 so we need each team to win 70.94% of the time. To put in perspective 70.94% as a moneyline is -244.

For this to be a blind bet we need to know if the six points increases the teams win probability by 20.94% or not. Add those numbers from the push chart together. If over 20.94% bet. If no don't.

Aside from that if you're willing to be at -110, then you need to break even 52.38% of the time. So here if your push chart numbers added together equal more than (70.94-52.38) 18.56% than your better bet is a tease than a straight bet.

This mistake most make is saying i need 70.94% to win and there have been 130 spots like this since 2006 and team teased 6 points won 73.1% of the time so I am betting this. Well here is the potential problem. What if they covered without that modified 59% of the time? That's only a 14.1% increase.

Markets are much more efficient now than ever in the past. Push chart data is a better method to attack this problem.

This is good enough for a recreational bettor who likes to gambler. Personally I gamble a lot in marginal spots but I figure it like this. One the ones where it is close, if 60% of the time the I am very slight +EV, and 40% of the time I am slight -EV. Over long run I come out ahead. I do worth to try and learn more to eliminate those -EV bets, yet when I calculate and edge and its super marginal enough I can't be certain I still generally bet it and keep working to refine the method.

One thing I am working on now is total distributions. Will be a while before I have it worked out. Problem is sample size running totals is too small. I need to come up with a modifier for total range applied to push charts to get them a little more accurate. This isn't super important but a minor adjustment expedites my bankroll compounding. I don't think I really need to be that precise but am working on it.

Reading your actual numbers 8 is pretty low value, like 1.5% to 1.7%.This season though both 5 and 8 have popped up a few times. I remember this happened at least once for each number this season due to a missed extra point.

Anywyas more on this later. Dead tired here and need to move on work for Kev which I'm late on. Sorry Kev.

[Stocks]

Thanks Prop

[pokerprop]

Broncos -3 -119 (Pinnacle)

[pokerprop]

Seattle +1.5 -102 (5Dimes)

[Pokeraddict]

It looks like it was a tough day for PAL posters. I got creamed on OAK and made a little back on CAR and STL. I got stuck where I get on Thigpen starting for MIA and at the last minute Henne started.

[pokerprop]

It's been a long time since I had a losing week in NFL I almost forgot what it feels like really. This week the game that crushed me was the Browns. Them not covering -2.5 (only winning by 1) killed that teaser leg so I bet the Broncos straight. Broncos lost straight but would have won in a tease. Browns not covering changed it from 1-0 to 0-2 on games involving those teams. Sucks I always hate losing teasers when teams win by just 1 and 2 because so rare. This time it cost me more. Total swing as 3.49 bets there.

Got crushed this week -4.71 bets. The upside is I was up 5.32 bets the past week knew how this goes and was prepared knowing one of these weeks was coming. Still sucks but a great season so far and should win some back next week.

Recap:

Bills +7.5 WIN 1.0
Patriots -2.5 / Buccs +14.5 WIN 1.05

Seattle +1.5 -102 LOSS 1.02
Broncos -3 -119 LOSS 1.19

Patriots / Lions Under 51 LOSS 1.1
Eagles +3.5 / Saints +3.5 1.05
Browns -2.5 / Broncos +3.5 LOSS 1.3
Raiders +7.5 / 49ers +7.5 LOSS 1.1

LOST -4.71 Bet

YTD Results:

Year to Date Results on Posted Picks

54-32-1 (+18.65 Bets)

Sides 48-20-1, Teasers 6-10, Totals 0-2

Profit by Week

Week 1 = +3.95 bets
Week 2 = +0.56 bets
Week 3 = +1.75 bets
Week 4 = +1.23 bets
Week 5 = +5.89 bets
Week 6 = +2.81 bets
Week 7 = +0.34 bets
Week 8 = +0.96 bets
Week 9 = +0.55 bets
Week 10 = +2.52 bets
Week 11 = +2.80 bets
Week 12 = -4.71 bets