NFL Week 12

[KevinMcC]

Steelers -6 (-110) @ 5Dimes
KC pick'em (-110) @ 5Dimes

Laid these two already.
Thoughts?


Added:

Bengals +10½ (-125) @ 5Dimes

[Gambler]

Steelers should win, not sure about the spread though. You got a great line on KC. I do like Under 39 1/2 on 49ers/Cardinals (Pinnacle).

[pokerprop]

Not sure you want honest feedback or not but really I don't like either bet. The Steelers are in a classic let down situation here. They are coming off a blow out home win, now go to the Bills. The following week they have an important game at the Ravens which has massive implications for the season. The AFC is going to be tough and they have to be setting sites on #2 seed but at very least the division. Potential look ahead / let down this week? Thankfully the Bills just won a couple games which reduces those chances, but you got to think they are also partially preparing (at least in film room) for Ravens a little in advanced as well. Add this to wanting to protect this win with no injuries etc. The spread of 6 scares me. If it hits 6.5 at a site selling half points at -110 this is an auto play for me at Bills +7.5 -130 or better and don't need to think too much about it. Right now can get Bills +7.5 -140 which is too much.

For the other game amazingly at 5-5 Seattle is in sole first place of their division.The Chiefs is a winnable game for them and motivation factor is as high as you can get on Seattle's side. Seattle has best home field advantage in NFL. Chiefs are an over valued team. They are better than expected at start of season, far better, and have played well and come together as a team. However look at their record 6-4. This breaks down as 5-0 at home, 1-4 on the road. Records don't mean much but they've lost to some mediocre teams and were blown out bad just the other week at a team with a real home field factor. Seattle's home field advantage is by far one of the best in NFL. Beyond just records teams similar to Chiefs, over performing etc for various reasons I could speculate further don't play well on road. I'm not sure I'll bet it but I'll be considering a bet on Seattle this week. I do hope the Chiefs win however because my only division future bet was Chiefs winning their division and I got them at good odds, I'll need to consider position further later in week.

[pokerprop]

2 Team Ties Win Teaser 5 Dimes +105
Patriots -2.5 / Buccs +14.5

(note: actual line was -3 and +14 but because ties win might as well post at what the bet actually is -2.5 / +14.5)

[KevinMcC]

Of course I wanted honest feedback lol, thanks prop. That's why I've been only making small bets early in the week and wait until the weekend to get a little more serious.

Followed that teaser too.

[Gambler]

Hey Prop,
I noticed the spread dropped significantly since yesterday from Chargers -10 to Chargers -8 1/2. I know -10 is not a key numbers such as 3 or 7, but on Monday night game where public ususally take the favorite, I think this is a significant movement. Also, moving it off of -10 impact teaser bets alot. What is your take on this? Thanks.

[pokerprop]

Sorry didn't see that post till just now. 10 actually is a key number, not as significant but its strong. The move off 10 came a couple days before the game, except where lines were shaded. 8.5 to 9.5 isn't that much of a difference and the spreads at those number will have a lot to do if the bookmaker wants to take teasers or not.

The part I think might be a little outdated is public usually taking the favorite, I'm not sure that is true or not.

[pokerprop]

Two Team 6 point Teaser "Ties Win" at 5Dimes. -105

Eagles +3.5 / Saints +3.5

(Actual is +3 on each but because ties win is +3.5)

3 point road favorites have covered +3 around 73% the past 5 years. Here we're benefiting also from a shade as both these team are very strong 3 point favorites closer to 3.5 point favorites.

I don't like either looking at it, especially the Saints, but math and historical wise both this is a very strong play, larger than typical edge on teasers.

[KevinMcC]

Jumped on that, seems like a great play - thanks prop.

[Gambler]

I think it's still true. We have a league in which we used CBSsportsline each week, where everyone pick against the spread on each games. Majority of the favorites are being picked most of the time, and most of these people do bet on games as well (although rather small). Since these are all my friends, co-workers, etc, there is no whales money. Just your average Joe's picks.