NFL Week 13

[pokerprop]

Shopping early lines now, likely will be posting a couple more. To start:

Patriots -3 -121 (Pinnacle)

[pokerprop]

5.5 point Ties win Teaser @ 5 Dimes +101

Giants -2.5 / Chiefs -2.5
Risk 0.99 to win 1.00

(ticket shows -3 on each but with ties win is same as -2.5)

[pokerprop]

6.5 point ties win teaser at 5Dimes (-115)

Browns +11.5 / Bills +14.5

(again tickets read 11 and 14 but ties win so getting the hook).

[pokerprop]

Falcons -2.5 -118 (Pinnacle)

[pokerprop]

That's all for now. will look later in week once lines are out more places and start to move more.

[Jeremy]

Prop, what do you think about the Bears this week coming up against Detroit, Obviously I want to shop the best line, I might lay big on this matchup though.

Would love to hear your thoughts.....

[pokerprop]

The thing to be careful of in that game is the Lions are going be really motivated. I’ll get to that a minute, but Lions generally bring and intense game. This last week was the first time I really seem them deflated, but this was after a really intense first half performance and back and forth battle, but once it got away from them they quit. Something that team hasn’t done much of this season.

Lions also perform on average better than they are expected to while Bears perform on average at about where they are expected to. Sample size is small but against the point spread records so far this season Lions 7-4 ATS, Bears 5-4-1 ATS. That’s an evolving market though so not that evident, but actually watching most the games this season it shows up in a lot of other ways on the field.

I think what a casual bettor might miss here is the Lions are not the typical 2-9 team that should hang back now and go for a better draft pick, nor the type of team where the players are likely going to quit. They are a franchise that desperately wants to win, draft picks are not a large consideration. They have a ton of young talent, some not locked up in massive contracts etc. Where the added motivation to get riled up in this game comes from is week 1. The Lions coaches are reminding them they already beat this team this team on their own field earlier this season but they got robbed because they are the Lions. Sure all the drama like that is being pumped into them again, and come game time they’ll be ready.

Now on the other hand in normal circumstances I’d say this is the perfect let down / look ahead scenario. The Bears are coming of a win as a dog which gives them now a much stronger chance at playoffs. Normally would look and say yeah the team is celebrating etc, this week has a 2-9 team to beat and the weeks after they need to face the Patriots, and the Week after on road at Vikings let’s start looking ahead here and just do enough to take care of Lions. The chances of this are greatly reduced though when looking at the Bears schedule:

Week 13: @ Lions
Week 14: Patriots
Week 15: @ Vikings *Farve's final Monday Night Football Game?*
Week 16: Jets
Week 17: @ Packers

Setting lines for all those games today the Bears will be an underdog in all their games after the Lions.

Chance of look ahead is so small. If Bears want any shot at winning their division this is a must win game for them. Lose it and they might not even find themselves in the playoffs, because that final 4 game schedule is brutal. Serious if anything next week concedes the game to the Pats and then spend 2 weeks preparing for the Vikings lol. They won’t do that obviously, but it actually would be a better strategy than looking past the Lions. This is a game they can’t afford to lose. Lions have nothing to play for but revenge, and they’re going to want it. Not sure it will be or not, but it certainly has the makings for a great game.

This game is interesting to me, but pressed for time at the moment with a few things. Once I free up here a little in a couple days I’ll give this one deeper look at match up level.

[Gambler]

I like this one: 4 teams, 13-pts teasers: Browns +17 1/2, Chargers PK, Falcons +10 1/2, Packers +3 1/2 for two units.
For a bigger payout: 6-team, 7 points teasers, 100 for 550: Eagles -1, Saints +1/2, Falcons +4 1/2, Rams +3 1/2, Patriots +3 1/2, OVER 40 1/2 Cowboys/Colts for one unit.

[KevinMcC]

Hey Guys.. this is from the Week 12 thread but thought I would post it in this weeks NFL thread. Prop got me those articles finished and they are some very sick articles... Stock I think you wanted a question answered about Teaser strategy? check out the Teaser Strategy article.

I haven't had time to read every article in full yet as I just wanted to get them posted up, but I will be doing that before the weekend... full list of the articles he wrote (all well over 1,000 words) are in my sports betting strategy section of my site.

[Gambler]

Kev/Jim, thanks for sharing. Great stuffs, I really enjoyed it.