NFL Week 14

[pokerprop]

Posted in last weeks thread a bet made on the week in advanced line:

Patriots -2.5 -120 (Sportsbook)

Bets I'm making now to follow. First one already made:

Colts -2.5 -104 (Pinnacle)

[pokerprop]

Buccs -2.5 -110 (5Dimes)

yikes that's three road favorites all with same spread actually had a situation like this early in season and it worked out, but still feels odd to bet.

[Pokeraddict]

I'm going to be a sucker. I already took ATL -7 -20. The line looks so off. I'm eyeing STL +9. I'm thinking if I wait I might can get +10.

[pokerprop]

Record on posted picks Season to date coming into Week 14

57-33-1 (+20.50 Bets)

Sides 50-20-1, Teasers 7-11, Totals 0-2

Profit by Week

Week 1 = +3.95 bets
Week 2 = +0.56 bets
Week 3 = +1.75 bets
Week 4 = +1.23 bets
Week 5 = +5.89 bets
Week 6 = +2.81 bets
Week 7 = +0.34 bets
Week 8 = +0.96 bets
Week 9 = +0.55 bets
Week 10 = +2.52 bets
Week 11 = +2.80 bets
Week 12 = -4.71 bets
Week 13 = +1.85 bets

[Stocks]

Have'nt bet this game yet I'm going to wait and see where the line goes but I like Washginton probably on the moneyline unless the lines moves to +3 but that seems unlikely so I'll more then likely end up taking them on the ML

[pokerprop]

Considering we have opposite side on Tampa Bay @ Washington will comment on why I don't like the Washington play.

The Redskins have major moral issues with players taking side. This week again more drama, this time with Albert Haynesworth who they've now suspended for the entire season. The McNabb benching a few weeks ago, followed by the odd massive contract during before the next game, his poor performance, other signs the team is not united, how they've folded (if you watch it they quit when down no unity on sidelines etc) etc. So many hints this team is not together and McNabb contract and now Haynesworth suspension its all efforts to fix moral.

The team isn't playing for much this season except now for future contracts. Something McNabb has locked up now despite his season which is 75 QB passer rating, 57% completion, 12 TD and 15 INT. He's also on pace to be sacked more times than he's ever been in his long NFL career.

Regarding Washington's record their win over the Bears and Packers were both complete flukes. The Eagles game I'll give them but was a plethora of injuries in that game on Eagles side and they were down early.

Washington is 28th in total offense, 23rd in total defense. Their Pythagorean rating has them as 4th worse team in league behind only: Buffalo, Arizona and Carolina.

Tampa Bay is not great, but this comes down to motivation and they actually have better stats than the Redskins too. Buccs have played well as a team all season. This is a must win game for the Buccs. They sit 7-5 on season, but check out their remaining schedule:

Sun 12/12 @Washington
Sun 12/19 Detroit
Sun 12/26 Seattle
Sun 1/2 New Orleans Saints

The get this win on a road and they have two home games they'll be favored in. Winning their next 3 is still tough but they are favored in all three of them. Week 17 never know what is going to happen. That could end up a game where winner goes into playoffs and loser is out, or while it seems unlikely it still does have the potential of being a meaningless game for the Saints. Buccs are not out.

Washington is pretty much eliminated from the playoffs right now.

Buccs are a little better team, but need to go on road so that off sets. A small edge for them. Intangibles here that get discredited too often are motivation factor and moral. Edge to Buccs by a lot in both those categories.

[Stocks]

Ya I saw you were on the Bucs but when I look at the games and teams each team has won and lost against Washington has only really lost 1 game that they should have won and that was a couple weeks ago against Minnesota.

The other loses were

@ New York
vs Philly
@ Detroit
vs Indy
@ St Louis
vs Houston

You can make an argument on a few of those games like Detroit but Detroit was playing fairly solid at the time and Detroit was at home, the Rams play good at home and Houston they lost to in OT but houston was playing better ball earlier in the season.

Now look at all Tampa's wins

vs Cleveland
@ Carolina
@ Cincinnati
vs St Louis
@ Arizona
vs Carolina
@ San Fran

They're basicly the worst teams in the league, Cleveland is ok but the game was in Tampa so you cant count that as a big win and St louis was also in Tampa and the Rams suck on the road.

I think the motivation and the must win factors are kind of overrated actually I think the must win factor is probably the most overrated factor in all of sports.

I think this game comes down to have the Red Skins players quit on the season or not and I dont really think they have

[pokerprop]

A lot of stats guys agree with you motivation is BS or overrated, since 2006
I'm 259-113 (69.6%) on bets against point spread (no teasers, props etc included), however there is a TON of -125 to -140 plays in there, so is not the same as picking at -110, but still a top win rate.

Me personally I've always found motivation to be a huge factor, though my belief on that isn't popular.

Things I look at is:
How well does the team play as a team:
How do they respond to the coaches:
What effects did last weeks results have on each team:
How much does short rest, bye week, or extra rest really actually benefit or hurt this team:
What injuries did team suffer last week:
Where does a win/loss leave each team:
What team do they play and where the week after this game:
How strong are the back ups if certain players go out:
How durable are the starting players on this team:

Are the coaches positive or passive do they motivate players to perform extraordinary or do they demand it. Again back to how players respond. Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin actually have similar styles. The difference is Coughlin had young players, changed them and help fix their mistakes and after initial resistance they responded to him. Meanwhile Andy Reed and Lovie Smith are similar and that has worked and not worked for them back and forth depending who they have for players. Teams respond different to different styles. Reed is better off with McNabb gone, he knew that and this is also part of his alliance to Kevin Kolb, which of course he had to drop here. I don't so much thing he and McNabb had problems they sound to really respect each other, but passive coach needs a willing QB who is a gamer. Guys like Jim Schwartz, Herman Edwards, Raheem Morris these guys are great for young teams and helping motivate players to perform better than they actually are. Gruden is much better suited for a team with talent and it was good move letting him go, he's not a coach for bringing up young guys imo. Then from there there are the coaches like Parcells, Belichick who will be great no matter where placed. I actually think Eric Mangini will someday be considered the same. Its still young in his coaching career and his longevity will be determined by if he gets lucky or not because luck is still a factor.

How coaches and players respond to each other and how well people play as a team matters a lot.

Statistics are a great base imo.. However NFL players, while many very talented, are human beings. They are not robots that perform as expected or as they should in each game. Capping all those outside factors has such a huge roll.

In fact I'm pretty well convinced to win all someone needs to do is master the psychology of sports, and then how the market works. If can get the best price on the teams under valued because intangibles are not considered, and get that price far more often than not, that's one angle can win long term.

Not everyone works out, but there were three plays I was most confident about this season. Raiders over Chiefs, Lions over Redskins. This pick here Buccs over Redskins is my third most confident bet of season. Win or lose it doesn't change that next season. When I start actually losing over any prolonged period of time I'll reexamine this. Faced with same situation next year I'd be just as equally confident with Buccs in this spot even if they get blown out next year. All the intangibles side with them in this game. My only concern is Buccs O-Line but the Redskins poor pass defense I think the Buccs can turn to the pass a little more than they've been willing to and perform okay. They just lose some of that edge with running the ball but edge is still there.

[Stocks]

Actually I should say even though I think the motivation factor is overrated I still think it effects some situations like division games like if you have a big underdog in a division game they might step up they're play a bit and keep the game closer then it should be. I think the thing thats hard to predict is how motivation will effect a teams play like last night the Jets had to be motivated big time for a big division game on monday night football and they played one of they're worst games all year.

The so called must win factor I think is overrated.

I had something else to say but I forgot

[pokerprop]

Well first one game is not relevant to a sample, as 55+% is strong edge in football and you're still way the hell off 25+% of the time and wrong more than 4 times out of 10 even with that edge.

However that game is a poor choice imo. Jet's have a young QB who has not performed well in National spotlight who would need to have had a hell of a game to win. I really expected this line to be Pats -6.5 -115 or so, but the edge above 3.5 while large still isn't massive. I did have several prop bets thought that favored Pats.

Copy and past from my notes when analyzing Jets @ Pats.

2009 Week 5 Monday Night
Jets 27 @ Miami 31 (LOSS)
12/24 (50% passing)
172 yards 1TD 0INT

2009 Week 13 Thursday Night
Jets 19 - Bills 13 (win)
7/15 passing (46.7% completion)
104 yards 1TD 0INT

2009 Week 17 Sunday Night
Jets 37 vs 0 Bengals (Win)
8/16 passing (50% completion)
63 yards 0TD 0INT

2010 Playoffs
Jets 24 @ Bengals 14 (win)
12/15 (75% passing)
182 Yards 1TD 0INT

2010 Playoffs
Jets 17 @ Chargers 14 (win)
12/23 passing (48% completion)
100 yards 1-TD 1-INT

2010 Playoffs
Jets 17 @ Colts 30 (loss)
12/20 passing (60% completion)
197 yards 2TD 0INT

2010 Week 1 Monday Night
Jets 9 vs Ravens 10 (loss)
10/21 passing (47.6% completion)
74 yards 0TD 0INT

2010 Week 3 Sunday Night
Jets 31 @ Dolphins 23
15/28 passing (53.5% completion)
256 yards 3TD 0INT

2010 Week 5 Monday night
Jets 29 vs Vikings 20
21/44 passing (47.7% completion)
191 yards 0TD 0INT

2010 Week 5 Thanksgiving Night
Jets 26 vs Bengals 10
16/28 passing (57.1%)
166 yards 1-TD 1-INT

I can't say I anticipated a blowout, because I didn't. I did however anticipate the Jets didn't have the needed come from behind potential if Pats got up early because they have a young QB who's stats are average at best overall, and even worse (on average) in national TV games.

After game analysis now though lol, but while I felt great about getting Pats at such a good price and confident about that bet, I was surprised too at just how flat the Jets were and was super impressed with Pats intensity. Despite big lead no one on that team even barely cracked a smile till mid way in the 4th.