Poker calling Odds question

[Stocks]

This is kind of a related to my last thread for those that helped me out in that.

( I ended up made a cool calculator on excel for figuring out calling odds)

I was messing around with it and wanted your thoughts on a situation.

Lets say your playing $1 $2 limit poker and someone raises you call and the blinds fold. You end up with a flush draw on the flop.

So theres $5.50 in the pot he bets so nows theres $6.50 in the pot and your getting good odds to chase your flush draw cso you call and theres now $7.50 in the pot.

The turn comes other guy bets again and theres now $9.50 in the pot and according to my calc you are not getting the right odds anymore. You should be calling $1.84 or less and folding bets above that.

The thing is you would probably be more -ev folding then calling because of the moeny you already invested in the hand even though your not getting the right odds.

Am I correct to assume this?

And whats your thoughts on these type situations in general, your not getting the right odds to chase but you would be more -ev folding.

[jason@bp]

I am very tired so this is sloppy. But here is what I'm getting as far as EV goes in this situation:

EV = 9/46 (9.5) - 37/46 (2) = 1.86 - 1.61 = 0.25

So you expect to win 25 cents every time you make this call.

Breaking EV = 9/46 (7.5 + X) - 37/46 (X)
BEV = 1.47 + .196(x) - .804x
-1.47 = -.608(x)
2.42 = X

So $2.42 is the breaking-point bet. Less is a profitable call, more is not.

For the sake of your answering your question though, let's pretend that the flop went check-check. So the pot is $5.50 on the turn. Villain bets $2, making the pot $7.50. You've got to call $2 to win a $7.50 pot.

EV = 9/46 ($7.50) - 37/46 ($2) = -0.14

So in a vacuum you expect to lose 14 cents on this call. You're asking whether we can consider 'money already invested in the hand' to make calling here +EV. The answer is no. At the time of action, whatever is in the pot already is pot money, nothing else; might as well forget any of it was ever yours.

What you can consider though is the amount you stand to win on the river when you hit. So say you estimate your opponent will put in two more bets on the river. You then adjust your calculations to take this into account by adding those bets to the pot size:

EV = 9/46 ($7.50 + 4) - 37/46(2) = 0.64

So taking into consideration what you will win on future streets, the call becomes +EV. Obviously if you don't expect to get paid off, the call remains a bad one that you will lose money on long-term. It all comes down to being able to accurately assess how likely you are to get paid off vs a villain.

Note that the above equation is just an approximation and there are lots of different ways to figure it out, most pretty rough. The gist of it is that you consider what you will win on the river when you hit, and then see if that amount makes up for your short odds; if it does, you are good. The technical term for this is implied odds.

Regarding what you're saying about folding being more -EV than chasing a draw. The EV of folding is always 0, so it isn't in itself a -EV play. You can't look at folding as 'giving up' an amount of money. When we fold, here is our EV, every time:

EV = (1)(0) = 0

The question is always 'are my other options less or more profitable than neutral EV?' -- i.e. what are the EVs of all possible actions vis-a-vis a fold.

Given our situations above, we can see that if we're in the $9.50 pot we should call, since the EV is > 0; if we're chasing in the $7.50 check-check pot we should fold, since the EV of a call there is < 0; and if in the $7.50 pot we figure to win enough on the river to increase our odds sufficiently, the EV of a call is > 0 and we should do it.

But teh moniez we've already put into the pot can't color our EV judgment, at least not in terms of 'we've already invested $X.' It's all dead money unless it's in our stack.

[Stocks]

Cool thanks man

[faststeady]

stocks , in this possie in strong limit games, you raise

disclaimer, no info/cards to refine answer

cheers
FS

[GottaTryIt]

If it's a "how to play the hand" question rather than if your calculator is correct then raise on the flop which adds more to the pot and you are effectively making your own pot odds improve.

Been up all night now 9am so that might make no sense when i read it back!

[Stocks]

Thanks guys thats actually something I was thinking about raising the flop