NFL Picks Thread

[KevinMcC]

Thought we could have a thread for NFL betting talk again this year.

First - pick for tonight = PACKERS -4

Question (for anyone or Prop haha): Does it make sense to buy the BILLS+6 (-110) to BILLS+7 (-130)?

I know Prop has said to buy off of 7 when getting 10 cent half points... curious about the situation above though.

[Scott]

GL tonight Kevin... I couldn't decide on a straight wager...

Ended up going Saints +14.5 / Under 58 / Arizona U +24 on a teaser...

[pokerprop]

A rough push chart.
6 will push about 3.4% of the time
7 will push about 5.7% of the time

We can take credit for only take half credit for each. This because we're moving off +6 and our opponents line of -6 had half the push rate built in, and the same for +7, we're moving on to it and our opponent will have half built in to their -7 line.

So buying to -7 we increase our win rate by (3.4/2) + (5.7/2) = 4.55%. So if +6 is 50% probability, +7 is 54.55% probability.

$100 Staked on +6 -110
50% time lose $100 = ($50)
50% time win $90.91 = +45.46
Expected Value = (4.54)

$100 Staked on +7 -130
45.45% time lose $100 = ($45.45)
54.55% win $76.92 = +41.96
Expected Value = (3.49)

So yeah it make sense - but it only it makes sense is +6 is the best line you can get. Right now +6 -103 is available at Pinnacle.

$100 Staked on +6 -103
50% time lose $100 = ($50.00)
50% win $97.09 = +48.55
Expected Value = (1.45)

Additionally at Bookmaker you could buy them to +7.5 -140. In this case we get full credit for the margin of 7 victory. So (3.4/2) + 5.7 = 7.4% so if +6 is 50% probability then +7.5 is 57.4%

$100 Staked on +7.5 -140
42.6% time lose $100 = ($42.60)
57.4% time win $71.43 = +$41.00
Expected Value = (1.60)

So as you can see +6 -103 at Pinnacle and +7.5 -140 at Bookmaker are FAR better options than the lines everywhere else (its not even close). Also ignore that they're all negative probabilities. If you're willing to bet any of them feeling you have an edge then to win the most money over the long term you'd calculate which option has the best expectation and then take that.

For recreational bettors flat betting, the few extra percent on your losses might not hurt. For professional bettors this is what separates the winners versus the loses, and that few dollars here, few dollar there over and over again - not given the opportunity to grow exponentially might mean a few less houses you can buy when you retire.

[KevinMcC]

Awesome, thanks Prop.

Man math used to be my strong suit all throughout school but working out math "problems" like these just mess with my fried brain these days.

[pokerprop]

Under 48 -105 @ Bodog for tonight games = solid imo

u48.5 is available for anyone still with their default lines they haven't changed over yet.

[Tom]

Question (for anyone or Prop haha): Does it make sense to buy the BILLS+6 (-110) to BILLS+7 (-130)?

I know Prop has said to buy off of 7 when getting 10 cent half points... curious about the situation above though.

I almost like the Bills to win that game so my answer would be of course not. But then again I am not a serious sports bettor. Bills are pretty competitive and in most games plus Cassell is somewhat injured.

[Stocks]

I'm taking it pretty easy this week not a big fan of betting too many games early in the season.

Dallas and New York u40.5

6 point Teaser San Diego -2.5 and Pittsburgh +7.5

Good luck

[Scott]

Lots of scoring in that GB/NO game... Surprised there were so many points scored in the game...

Tomorrow I like...

Giants -3 (Bet earlier in week, wish I didn't now)
Titans ML +100
Chiefs -5
49'ers -5

Chargers -3 / Pats PK -120
Steelers +7 / Lions +7 / Falcons +7 / Titans +7 / Cowboys +14 / Pats PK +550

[pokerprop]

Hi Scott - I don't mean to pick on your at all but the two teasers you posted have so many fundamental issues with them (as -EV of bets as you can find) figured I'd point this out.

Chargers -3 / Pats PK -120

Perhaps the most important rule to avoiding sucker bets
NEVER tease to -3 or +3
This by far the most common margin of victory in NFL and you're setting yourself up here to have the bookmaker freerolling against you should this first leg push.

Beside that Chargers are -8.5 @ Bookmaker so there you could have teased:
Chargers -2.5 / Pats -0.5 @ -110

Steelers +7 / Lions +7 / Falcons +7 / Titans +7 / Cowboys +14 / Pats PK +550

The second most important rule
NEVER teaser to -7 or +7 as this is the second most common margin of victory.

Rule #3
6 team teasers pay +700 at a handful of sites so +550 is horrible bet.

I suggest this article here Teaser Betting Strategy - Win Bets by Making Sports Betting Teasers!
serious read that a couple a time and it should help a TON figuring out your teaser plays. All these legs were decent but were bet @ horrible odds without enough points. I'd put the bookmaker advantage 15+% on these as opposed to just a few percent you could get picking teams random. Anyways hope this helps and good luck on the picks.

[Scott]

Thanks Jim, need all the help I can get... I usually bet all of my teasers with 5Dimes and thought they offered decent odds and the best options, but I'll have to maybe use another book this season for teasers... Don't like using new books though, as I always run into problems it seems...