Nevada Rotation makes me and others go HMMMM

[ak]

"Now if you want to bear with me and hear another one of my "theories", I call it, THE FIRST GAME ON THE BOARD THEORY!

Well so you have the Nevada Rotation. list games in order so there won't be chaos trying to find the lines on the board.

But have you ever thought WHY one team is listed first as opposed to any other game that starts at the same time? If there's 8 games going in the early games, why select one team over the other. Naturally, it's the first game people look at when they pick up the schedule, look at the board, or pick up a parlay card. So consciously or not, it is one of the first games a player is going to be interested in betting, or playing a parlay with that team.

But have any of you looked at the results of which team wins or loses that game? Well I HAVE! And would it surprise you to find out that 65% of the time, the team that is favored by the public...LOSES!! Of course not...no one pays attention to that but me.

One day, while studying the schedule on games that were played, I noticed the first game on the board was an upset. So I started checking back through my schedules for that year, and noticed that teams that were listed first game in the schedule, and were being played by the public...usually the fave....were either losing outright...or not covering. So I started going through my old schedules and found out there was a "pattern" here. So I started wondering WHY was one team listed first over another when all the games started at the same time. Of course SOMEONE has to be listed first. But WHY was the public Wrong OVER 65% OF THE TIME? Seemed to go against all odds, and I checked back 10 years.

For example, this week the 49er/Bengals are listed first game. Why not the Giants/Eagles which is obviously a more attractive game to the players. But this week the game is off the board. So let's take the Lions/Vikings which currently has the most bets today according to Caribsports.com. Just doesn't make sense. Of course there are those of you out there that will say, well SOMEONE has to be listed first...and I agree. But why one team over another?

But just watch those "first games on the board" and see who the public is on every week, and who covers the spread. By the end of the season, I'll bet it's close to 65% for who the public is AGAINST! Just saying!"

[pokerprop]

The memo

[ak]

I like that site, needs more sports betting SEO done to it though

The memo does not really go into great detail on the Rotation however and how/why they decide to pick first.

[pokerprop]

Well AK i like you but wanted to address the issue first because next time it will be a similar conspiracy theory. Trap games are fallacy, they don't exists nor have they ever existed. Bookmakers shading their lines due to recreational bias does happen - but with small shops and sites that set dual lines such as Bodog, SIA, BetUS etc. But these are only available for 3 maybe 4 or 5 if you're lucky bets before they change you to regular lines. It doesn't change the market price and they'd get arbed to death on the bad line if they tried shading to the point one side could be traded against.

Anyways though... That's the more helpful answer

The actually answer -

Nevada sets the rotation numbers for the entire season before the NFL pre-season even starts. You might remember pre UIGEA getting tons of booklets in the mail with season betting previews and schedules? If you happen to have any take a look. They all include the Las Vegas rotating number for all games of the season.

So with this knowledge are you suggesting that before teams have even decided on their roster, completed traded, QB jobs getting won etc. They mapped out this elaborate scheme for 21 weeks worth of game and found the trap where they'll pick 65% winners on lines unknown while taking 60% on the other side?

The second problem is this outsourced by the state of Nevada to a private contractor who creates the Official Nevada Sports Schedules which include rotations number and all sportsbooks taking wagers on that bet are forced to use that rotation. So you'd have to corrupt government contractors to get them in cahoots with selecting "trap games" to appear first - and really trust they weren't going to spill the beans that somehow Nevada sportsbooks know better than anyone else in the world which upsets will occur.

I could continue to poke holes in this theory all day long, but I think this post is enough to prove it is a myth.

[ak]

I did not except that answer from Jim ( didn't make since based on our findings) so I did some more research on it and asked a few other excel sporting type guys that earn a ton betting on sports from similar theories and we found an article which was published at ogd9 regarding how the Nevada Rotation came to be and how they choose the first games on the board. It goes with my theory listed on post 1 and believe we now understand the first game on the rotation is more then just a "flip of a coin" or luck.

In the last few years, the rotation has been researched and compiled by Don Best Sports, a sports information service emanating from Las Vegas. Every Nevada sports book now not only uses it, but the majority of offshore bet shops use it as well.

The following is an interview with Gary Pasquale, Director of Schedule Services for Don Best Sports.

GT: Don Best Sports now makes the sports betting rotation for every Nevada and offshore book. Why did the company get into the sports schedule business?

GP: Since our Premium Service had already become the industry standard for sports information in 1998, we decided to start creating our own rotation. Within six months, all of the major Nevada and offshore sports books switched to our rotation.

GT: What is the most challenging aspect of your job?

GP: Making sure of the publication’s accuracy is definitely the most challenging. It is also were the most pressure comes in. We must make sure we have the exact venues correct, as well as the starting times. We sure don’t want the sports books to get past-posted (taking bets after the game has started).

GT: How many time zones are included in this publication?

GP: We publish in the Eastern, Central and Pacific Time zones. However, it isn’t as easy as it may seem. Some schools are located in a state that has two time zones, like Tennessee. We also must be aware of when the country goes from daylight time to standard time.

GT: We are aware that the network and cable television stations are constantly changing the times of sporting events to fit their schedule. How do you keep your customer appraised of these changes?

GP: It’s a two-fold process. We send a fax and call certain customers. We also make the time changes available on our Website (Sports Betting Odds System - Free Picks - Real Time Odds from Don Best)

GT: Why do we see some schedules at the sports books with a Jim Feist logo on them and others that say Don Best Sports?

GP: Jim Feist buys the rotation from us and then uses it to print his own version of the schedule. He supplies his version to various companies for distribution.

GT: What is the toughest time of the year to make the schedule?

GP: The initial first few books of the basketball season are more difficult because the college schools are not required to post their early tournament schedule dates. Therefore, we are constantly calling college athletic directors and sports information directors to get starting times for these tournament games.

GT: Do you ever get different starting times when you call separate departments in the same school?

GP: Absolutely. We will go to the school’s website first and then try to verify the time by calling a live person in the different departments. We then make another phone call prior to the book going to print to make sure the time or venue hasn’t changed.

GT: This seems like it has to be more than a one man operation.

GP: Definitely. We have a great staff. The look of the book is the responsibility of Greg Perslin, our grid coordinator, John Mastalir, who had the same responsibilities for many years at the Nevada Sports Schedule, does the research.

GT: College schools that are considered “board” teams are regularly included in the schedule rotation. There are other schools that are lumped into a part of the rotation called “added games.” Who makes that determination?

GP: We get opinions from well-respected sports books and also ask the opinions of a few successful handicappers.

GT: Do you see more schools being added to the list of “board” teams?

GP: No, I think it is fairly stable right now with the lower conferences still being included under the header of “added games.” Those contest historically have lower betting limits.

GT: Since there could be more than 100 games on a busy college basketball Saturday. How is the order of games determined?

GP: We make the order by time, putting all of the games that start at 4:30 p.m. before the games that start at 5:00 p.m. and so on.

GT: But how do you determine the order in which the numerous 4:30 and 5:00 games are listed?

GP: Well, since this rotation is under copyright, I wouldn’t want to be giving away company secrets. But it is a little more scientific than picking teams out of a hat.