Teaser Question For Prop

[Stocks]

I got a teaser question mainly for Prop because he seems to know this topic very well but if anyone else knows feel free to chime in.

This is a question about the Green Bay game and 5Dimes shading numbers.

I understand why 5Dimes shades numbers for teasers especially on the so called Wong teaser games but why are they shading the spread on the Green Bay game?

Most books have Green Bay -12.5 or -13 but 5Dimes has them -14 +110. Wait I think I just answered that question myself they want that game to be teased to 8 instead of 6.5 or 7

Ok new question whats the strategy and math on teasing big spreads?

[pokerprop]

5Dimes offers teasers in every 1/2 point increment between 5 and 17 points and also offers 20 point teasers. You can do 10 point or 11 point two team teasers and all sorts of things there that you can't do at other sites and there odds are completely awesome. They basically are just banking that more squares place teaser there than anyone sharp and I'm sure that's the case. Plus they just limit anyone that's beating up on them too bad.

I'll go ahead and break down a similar one here:

5 Dimes has Colts shaded to +11 (Pinnacle has +10 -111, and really this game is like a 9.8 point favourite listed as 10). i wouldn't be surprised if this closes at -9.5 either. In any case were getting off the 10 (a very value able point in NFL) and then fully crossing the 14 (very strong point) and the 17 (solid point) because ties win were getting +17.5.

5 Dimes odds on 2 team teasers ties win are -105!!! (This is totally awesome). So here we took a STRONG 10 point dog (as in cost more to bet them then it does the -10) and were able to tease them 7.5 points across key numbers for better odds than most sites charge for 6 point teasers (how can it not be +EV??).

Anyways as far the strategy goes for betting shades - its no different than anything else. Too many people keep thinking of teasers in a box. Teasers have unique odds for each individual team.

Let's take this 2-team teaser at -105. What are the odds for each team?
Formula: risk/return=implied probability. Here we risk $105 to win $100 so our return should the bet win is ($100+$105) $205. So 105 risk/205return=0.5121951219512195 which is 51.22% (implied probability). What this tells us is that we need BOTH teams to win 51.22% of the time to average break even.
To see how often each team individually needs to win we just need to take the square root of 0.5122 (not if this was a three team teaser we'd take the cubed root, if it was a 4 team teaser the 4th root, of the implied probability as a decimal). So anyways using a square root calculator we see that solves to 0.7156814934033155 which is 71.57%. So the implied probability for each team is 71.57% If each wins that often our teaser is +EV.

To look it at in more familiar terms use an odds converter here putting 71.57% into the field required break even percentage I see the odds are -251.7 (so basically -252).

So a 2-team teaser at -105 is a PARLAY where both teams are -252. We know the odds are the same for both teams because we can select ANY 2 teams. So you're making a single wager at -252 on that team (you just need to parlay it as a requirement).

Back to strategy. In this example each team had an implied probability of 71.57% chance.

Let's use Pinnacle's line because they have the lowest juice.
Colts +10 -111
Buccs -10 +103

Implied Probabilities (again risk/return=)
111/211=0.5261 (52.61%)
100/203=0.4926 (49.26%)

These two totals equal 101.87% the extra 1.87% being due to the bookmakers advantage (the vig). So to remove it let's divide each by 101.87%

Colts +10 | 52.61/101.87= 0.5164 (51.64%)
Buccs -10 | 49.26/101.87= 0.4836 (48.36%)

Those figures total 100% and are the market price with no vig based on odds from the betting site with by far the highest limits and lowest juice (should be pretty darn close to true probabilities).

So from here what we need to know is:
Does moving the odds from +10 to +17.5 increase the chance of covering by greater than 19.93%, because if it does making that teaser is +EV. Remember the no-vig market price is 51.64. We need the teaser leg to win 71.57% of the time 19.93% is the difference.

Where it get super tough is coming up with a push chart on the larger spread where sample sizes are super limited. All math is here though, from here its just determining if the tease increases their win percentage enough or not. 5Dimes has a TON of teaser and pleaser options plus other sites do shade too (Bodog has the Dolphins at +9 -130 last I knew) if can figure out a good method for calculating push charts, can do this math all day long and make money. For anyone betting under $1K per game Absolute MUST have sites for NFL football are Bodog, 5Dimes and Bookmaker (PM me for link if joining any). For over $1,000 per game you near certain 100% certainly need to use Non US sites (Even if in the US should be able to figure that out). Many other betting sites are pure garbage. I trust them but there is next to no reason for anyone to have a Legends, JustBet or betOnline account - none. (only reason people do is because affiliate tell them too )

[pokerprop]

Sorry to answer one the questions direct. With so many options to tease if 5dimes recognizes they have two lines match up together that would be a +EV tease they might need to shade one of the lines.

For example perhaps they spotted if it was at -12.5 maybe or -13.00 a 10-point ties win teaser or a 10 point ties reduce teaser (depending which line was used) was +EV. If there is another spot on the board that is +EV with the same line, they need to move it. Maybe they now see one side is +EV but its less than the others on the board - or maybe there is no side to match it with.

Anyways these are guys are as sharp as you'll find in an odds maker so sure deciding which games to shade is all computer based and makes it more difficult to find +EV teaser. You'll still find some - its just leaving them as less as exposed as possible. With all the option there are though there will never be a week some teaser or another isn't +EV at 5dimes for long as they keep the odds where they are.

[Stocks]

Thanks Prop I'll have to study this a bit more but it makes sense.