Flop massive draw and face aggression

[pokeraussie]

Was really unsure what to do in this spot.

Stacks pre-flop: Me (around $600) EP ($400+) LP (less then 100bb if I remember correctly)

EP player opens to $10, had seem him raise a bit he had a fairly wide range, I call with KTs since it plays well in multi-way pots and I wasn't expecting to get 3bet, and a player in late position who seemed like a regular but a bit fishy also calls.

Flop comes down 987 2 tone board. I flopped the straight draw + flush draw but was really deep stacked as was the EP opener. The PFR cbets to $22, I just call, and the late position player raises to I think $60.

His flop raise didn't worry me, but the PFR 3bets to $200. Are you really playing a hand like an over pair like this? The way he 3bet felt strong to me, I was thinking he had a set.

Obviously this is a shove/fold decision. Thoughts?

[parttimepoker]

How did you know it was going to play multiway when you were the first caller? Seems like you're in MP and can easily fold pre.

Anyhow, your straight draw could easy be no good / a chop and you have the non-nut flush draw. You have zero clean outs (unless there's a straight flush draw in there) and you're considering a gamble for 200BBs.

This is actually not a monster draw MW. PFR has lots of sets, made straights, two pairs in his range - way more of that than overpairs. The LP raiser also has zero overpairs in his range given preflop action (maybe JJ I guess). Yes, there are more smaller flush draws than bigger ones, but the fact that you hold KT knocks out a TON of the flush combos people like to play.

I think this is a situation where you get focused on the fact that you hit a dream flop for your hand in a vacuum and start to discount all of the actual context that's telling you your hand isn't that great.

It's not necessarily a shove / fold, fwiw. As this hand goes, you can happily fold right now, but with a slightly different board or stacks you could flat to keep in worse draws.

[pokeraussie]

How did you know it was going to play multiway when you were the first caller? Seems like you're in MP and can easily fold pre.

It's $1/$2 90% of hands are multi-way, this game was your typical loose passive live cash game, a lot of calling and very little 3 betting pre. They are calling with a lot of junk "for value" once they see how much money is in the pot. Considering how deepstacked I was, I think this is a very standard call pre.

I think this is a situation where you get focused on the fact that you hit a dream flop for your hand in a vacuum and start to discount all of the actual context that's telling you your hand isn't that great.

Exactly. Given the action I came to the realization its pretty difficult for EP not to have a monster hand in this spot and folded. When you have no fold equity and can't be the aggressor with a strong draw its going to be -EV to continue.

The LP raiser folded and I asked the EP player if he had a set and he turned over the T so I am thinking he flopped the nuts.

[parttimepoker]

Still pretty sure you can fold pre in MP. As you learned this hand, draws - even solid ones - don't play that well OOP.

Is KT the bottom of your calling range or are you also calling K9s, etc? That's 5BBs per call for hands that don't flop well often, are rarely dominating / making the nuts, are tough to play OOP. I assume the live rake for your game is also something ridiculous, which gives you even more incentive to stay out of pots.

Not making five of those calls pre a session = +25BBs at a minimum. Playing hands that have a hard time making the nuts with 200+ BB effective stacks and even considering getting it all in when you flop ok is a good way to lose a big, big stack.

[jdwanchalk]

I like raising the $22 to $65 and shoving to a re-raise against the opener. If they flat the $65 at least you can exercise some pot control as they will likely slow down on the turn and you can win with a bet or by completing a draw. Obviously that's irrelevant here though.

As it was played, I would call the 3b and go from there. If you brick turn, give up. Shoving is just really dumb because you only ever get called by better and will seldom get folds. If I had to decide between folding and shoving, I would fold. If I had to make the best decision possible, I would call the $38.

Edit: Just saw there was a 4b to $200. I would assume the 4b is a big pocket pair and the raise to $60 is two pair/straight/set etc. I would say shoving is ok but very high variance. The good thing is that I don't think you're often times going to be up against a made straight or a better flush draw. In fact, the other two players are unlikely to be on FDs, meaning you probably have even more outs. I think I shove here almost always. I am sure it's correct.

[jdwanchalk]

I think this is a situation where you get focused on the fact that you hit a dream flop for your hand in a vacuum and start to discount all of the actual context that's telling you your hand isn't that great.

You have this backwards, this particular context makes his hand better than it would be otherwise (in a limped pot, for example).

You're basically worried about AQss, nothing else. They could always have a straight, but it's highly unlikely, and even then you have tons of outs to chop/win.

[parttimepoker]

Playing this draw all in on this flop for 200BBs cannot possibly be correct.

I would love to play in the games you base your ranges on.

[jdwanchalk]

Playing this draw all in on this flop for 200BBs cannot possibly be correct.

I would love to play in the games you base your ranges on.

It is absolutely correct. He is almost always going to be 40% at worst in a three way pot. I am 100% sure that it is correct. You must not play much live poker. There is only a small chance someone has a made straight or a better FD, and that is all he is worried about. Plus, if he gets ai heads up, he is in even better shape with the added money from the player who folded.

This isn't even close. 200 bbs is also not much, it's super standard for live play. Only online is 100bb normal.

[parttimepoker]

I play a lot of live poker, and have for the better part of a decade. I guess we play in different games.

I can tell you that no one is reshipping multiway with QQ on this board from EP for 200BBs in the games I play. As a result, I don't see a ton in EPs range that is great for our hand. Given the amount of money behind and the lack of fold vig, I don't think you should be putting in that many blinds with two non-nut draws. If you assume EP does this with QQ+,TT-88, A2c+,T9s, JTo, JTs,T9o, you're on the bad end of a flip with your draw. If you take the overpairs out, you're ~a 60-40 dog.

I believe your original assessment was that shoving was ok, but high-variance. That's a bit far from "absolutely correct". If you feel confident overpairs are in there, then I agree that a shove is ok but not massively +EV - still seems pretty close given the variance.

Mostly, I feel like it's a fold pre.

What is the max buy in at this game?

[jdwanchalk]

It's 1/2. At 2/5 or 5/10 I would discredit QQ/KK/AA shoving over here more than I ever would at 1/2.