1Likes
LinkBack URL
About LinkBacks
Story from NFL Betting today
I had never seen the NFL proposition before: Will the first score of the game be a safety? At the time I looked at at the odds which were No -99900 Yes +40000 and after rethinking it just now i think this must have a typo where an extra zero got added to it. I was busy and was trying to find an alternate line before kick off but it was the Cowboys/Giants game I came across it. I looked double checking my eyes were correct that Yes was 400 to 1 which it was. I remember saying this has to be +EV - but was in a hurry and didn't even process why other than it just must be. I mentioned to someone "hey if you want a long shot this is a great bet". Busy and with it being a long shot forgot about it.
Of course when first score of the game was a safety it took me about 30 seconds to say ##%&#(&#!!!!!
So just now thinking about it, I searched my spread sheet and found an entry on one of my Super Bowl wagers that said that said 0.63% of scores on season were safeties . Now I'm not sure if the first score is less likely or more likely to be a safety (I haven't looked into it - nor have I looked at this seasons safeties). I would guess "less likely" due to starting field position often being the 20+ on the opening drive. but that's simple logic and haven't reasoned much further. What I am relatively sure is that was a bad line and the intended line was No -9990 Yes +4000 and somehow the bookmaker added an extra zero (I could probably debate this wasn't obvious though as No might be +EV if that was true). 40 to 1 wouldn't of been a bad payday but if it was the line offered I wouldn't have bet it. Also every sportsbook would state line error here imo and pay on 40 to 1 so couldn't really have taken advantage of the mistake. So bad beat turned into acceptable one as the only reason it caught my eye was a line error but being busy didn't spot it as a line error only as a bet I though this has to be worth a shot.
Not even sure this is interesting to anyone as sports betting is pretty emotionless to me, but I did get worked out for a split second there when the first score was a safety. LOL at first I was like man $50 would of been $2K. Then it hit me no wait $50 would of been $20,000. I had already resolved to ugh okay w/e. But then after going back to it now see ah that was a bad line. I can imagine the stress a complete fish betting it might of felt. However with it being -999 chances are it was a virgin line never touched or maybe took a bet equally on both sides; more likely than not no one was harmed or had such an experience, the bookmaker still never knows he offered it and it was just me as the sole person getting worked up for a split second for not having bet it. Of course if I had I would have been the worse one to make that mistake as I'm sure it would have been reasoned I was taking a shot and would have had to deal with an angry supervisor lol.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Scott
Bookmarks