TPTK facing river bet

[pokeraussie]

Villain seemed to have fairly nitty stats, although not a lot of history.

On the river I think his range is polarized to sets/bluffs.

Is this a call/fold fairly readless?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

SB: $26.10
BB: $32.72
Hero (UTG): $25.94
MP: $25
CO: $25
BTN: $29.30

Pre-Flop: A J dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) 8 6 5 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.25) J (2 Players)
SB bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

River: ($5.75) 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $3.50, Hero?

[parttimepoker]

Should bet nitty opponents on this flop (really on any flop IP).

You can also min-raise turn here, it's a good way to get some extra value from draws and get a cheap showdown IP on draw-heavy boards like this.

Anyhow, you weren't asking about that. Pretty sure you can fold here; opp doesn't have as many bluffs as 2p / set / straights. I'm also pretty sure that is very close against a fairly unknown at low stakes due to random element, so I wouldn't worry about it too much either way.

[leporello]

I doubt he'd bet a set there. Pretty much straights or bluffs and don't know how many 7s he can have in his hand apart from 77 (hard to say whether he would even bet the turn with that). I'd call, but i love to call.

[pokeraussie]

I'd expect more sets then 77 I think he'd check the turn with a OESD and be happy to get to showdown.

Anyway I called and the nit had an over pair.

[pokeraussie]

Should bet nitty opponents on this flop (really on any flop IP).

One reason I don't like bluffing in this spot is because he has a lot of low pairs in his range that picked up gutshots on this low coordinated flop so he is never folding.

[leporello]

Very weird that he would be an overpair on that river.

[parttimepoker]

One reason I don't like bluffing in this spot is because he has a lot of low pairs in his range that picked up gutshots on this low coordinated flop so he is never folding.

He's folding tons of things that nits call out of the BB, including tons of Ax combos, all broadway, the low end of the small pairs you mention and some other random stuff. Plus, you have outs to a lot of the things he calls with and have a couple scare cards on turn / river that will allow you to bluff again.

Bet 2/3 pot or even half pot. He easily folds over a third of the time and you make money.

[pokeraussie]

He's folding tons of things that nits call out of the BB, including tons of Ax combos, all broadway, the low end of the small pairs you mention and some other random stuff. Plus, you have outs to a lot of the things he calls with and have a couple scare cards on turn / river that will allow you to bluff again.

Bet 2/3 pot or even half pot. He easily folds over a third of the time and you make money.

Sure that makes sense. If it's immediately profitable not gonna argue with that.

Another consideration is allowing them to catch up on the turn when we have them dominated. That way we can extract another 2 streets of value when they would have just folded the flop, although that's not going to happen that often though I guess.

I'd typically be more willing to bluff this flop when I have absolute crap with no SD value.

[parttimepoker]

You can just bet 100% against nits all the time when they haven't shown strength. That's why they're nits.

[RB]

Bet OTF vs. a nit. As played fold OTR since he's never value betting with worse and rarely bluff OTR.