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That's where I disagree. I don't think his hand range has me crushed when he sizes it like this. I think his range is polarized to sets/Kx with flush card, and a decent amount of semi bluffs, he would never be doing this with under pairs and top pair decent kicker type hands.Originally Posted by Frank
Come on. You have played 30 hands vs the guy. You know nothing about him! Don't assume that your opponents at nl25 have polarized turn barreling ranges, because they don't!
You should get flopzilla if you don't have it already. You should also use positional stats instead of vpip/pfr as often as you can. What range do you think he opens UTG+1 in FR? How often do you think you will win a showdown if you call turn? what do you do on river he bets or checks? How often will you make your hand into a bluff on turn or river?
what does a big bet on the turn accomplish with a medium strength hand? against a polarized range i am way ahead, and i think he is shutting down pretty much always on the river once i call.
He bets a medium hand to win the pot, to make a weak hand like yours either fold or call without pot odds.
The last comment makes me think you typoed the example. You are not way ahead against any hand. You have a horrible hand that is an easy fold because you can't beat nuthin' and your main draw may well be drawing dead.
You don't have a bluff catcher. You got a piece of shit that may be drawing dead but is at best a two outer.
I am asking why would he bet this much with a medium strength hand, not why did he bet...
On this board, a smaller bet would accomplish the same thing no?
If he is aggressive enough to bet a range as wide are you're implying, he is likely aggressive enough to have semi-bluffs or may be even complete air in his range, don't you think?
To me this sizing looks like exactly what it is, he is trying to buy the pot expecting me to fold a medium strength hand.
None of this really makes much sense. Getting a worse hand to fold accomplishes nothing, and for the second part, a smaller bet would accomplish the same thing. It's difficult to call any normal sized bet, irrespective of pot odds, because it's going to be difficult getting paid off on a 4 flush board.
Like I said above, it is what it is, an attempt to steal the pot.
Last edited by pokeraussie; 02-14-2012 at 01:57 PM.
I don't understand why you don't think the most obvious hand coincides with the most obvious action.
He opens under the gun with AhKs... bets the pot on the flop... bets the pot on the turn (for value and to eliminate the pot odds of anyone with a single club).
A small bet makes no sense here at all. Either you bet the pot or you check. The implication also is if it bricks the river, the dude will fire again.
In addition to AK, the same logic goes for any other hand with a King, any two clubs, QQ, JJ, TT, AA. All these hands should be betting the pot. None of these hands should be betting less than the pot.
The only smaller bet hands would be AcXc, or maybe AcKs.
A pot size bet is a likely bet for any circumstance. The only thing you beat is a smaller pair than you, a stone bluff, and something like AcQh, aganist which you are only about a 2-1 favorite... and you have to then call the river to win your pots, as well as call when you lose.
Calling here doesn't make any sense. Fold and play another hand when you are not trying to get miracle lucky.
(Also, I'm not implying he's betting a wide range. I'm implying he bets this way 95% of the time you are beat. Sure, sometimes you will fold a winner, but who freaking cares. You'll lose a fortune calling standard pot size turn bets with no hand no draw in the long run.)
Also: "Getting a worse hand to fold accomplishes nothing,"
Sure it does. If the bettor has AK but no club, he obviously wants you to 1) fold, or 2) call a bet that kills your odds on the draw. It would be totally stupid to bet $1 with AK and no club into a $5 pot, thus giving you 6-1 on your immediate call, plus the implied odds if you made a river bet... and that is another reason to fold your junk. You don't have a good value bet on the river even if you catch a club... and that againshows why he must bet the pot. Now you are getting 2-1 on flush draw, which is suicide.
Last edited by 321; 02-14-2012 at 03:10 PM.
Wrong, and wrong.
A smaller bet has a greater chance of getting value from worse, the whole purpose of the bet.
Calling here makes plenty of sense if I think I have the best hand, because like I said it's doubtful he is continuing to bluff the river. You are way overestimating the abilities of 25NL players if you are expecting him to triple barrel bluff in this spot.
Obviously I am not calling here to catch the flush that would be beyond terrible if he is bluffing it's likely a semi-bluff to a better flush.
Furthermore, what you may think is the correct decision on the turn, is not representative of what other players are doing. I am not sure if you have played any 25NL but pot bets are really uncommon. The players who tend to use them are usually the weaker short stackers that are really easy to play against.
Last edited by pokeraussie; 02-14-2012 at 03:22 PM.
Perhaps you are overestimating your opponent's opinion of your own play, and by extension misjudging his perception of how likely you are to call his value bets.A smaller bet has a greater chance of getting value from worse, the whole purpose of the bet.
Doubtful. A player running these stats is likely using a HUD so would see my stats aren't fishy.
The purpose of making a bet is because it is the highest EV play to do. The same goes with the sizing of the bet. It is definitely not right to make a bet of a size that gets an opponent to call if that call gives him pot odds. It would be a huge mistake to bet $1 into a $5 pot if your opponent had $5 total, or if he had $2 total, or if he has deep chips. You need to make a bet where it is incorrect for him to call. It is correct for a person to call $1, therefore it is incorrect for you to bet $1. You should bet more.
Betting large enough so if he calls it is a mistake > having him fold > having him call a small bet with pot odds, and good implied odds on a river bet > checking and giving the player with a draw a free card. A small bet is a poor choice here by alot.
More to the point though... what is an opponent thinking when he bets? Bottom line is, we don't care. Our hand is shit. Move on and play a hand with a positive EV and not a negative one.
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