Bluff catcher facing big turn bet

[pokeraussie]

Villain was 26/23 over like 30 hands.

He pretty much insta bet on the turn.

The sizing makes no sense to me, he'd be wanting value with a flush and he would never be betting that much with a Kx hand.

This seems like it would be a bluff a good percentage of the time, with the intention of getting weaker Kx to fold, right?

Also having one of the flush cards makes me more likely to call because when it's a bluff he's doing it with the A so he has fewer outs.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players

BB: $9.08
UTG: $5.15
UTG+1: $29.76
MP1: $19.23
MP2: $14.50
Hero (CO): $37.75
BTN: $27.12
SB: $19.53

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 2 K 8 (2 Players)
UTG+1 bets $1.88, Hero calls $1.88

Turn: ($6.11) 4 (2 Players)
UTG+1 bets $5, Hero?

[makeitso]

30 hands is basically nothing so consider him unknown, although these stats are suggesting somewhat passive.

I think maybe your over thinking it. I'd fold and move on and not feel bad at all. I think if you had a lot of history and knew he was capable of a bluff here then call sometimes, but against someone I don't know on a bad board for me, betting into me from EP and at 25NL where in general people are playing pretty straight forward its an easy fold. He can show a bluff I suppose but that can be said on just about any hand. Doesn't make sense, doubt he has the flush, but probably has you beat.

[pokeraussie]

26/23 is not passive at 25nl FR. i don't think i am overthinking it at all, the bet sizing makes zero sense.

[321]

Why doesn't it make sense to you? He's betting less than the pot. I'd figure the majority of bets here that was not a bluff would be $5 or so.

In any case, you are beat and have no hand no draw, so muck.

[pokeraussie]

It's a difficult spot because I was fairly clueless about his post flop play.

That said, you can start drawing conclusions based on his VPIP/PFR and he's going to have a ton of air in this spot (he had a high cbet %).

I also have a sign on my head that says playing with scared money, so I guess that makes me a target somewhat.

[thefarang]

You flat called a pre-flop raise from UTG+1, called a flop C-Bet, and you're stuck on the turn because you know absolutely nothing about his hand.

There's a lot of range that someone could be playing that way. Hell, even TT might play the hand like this. At this level, I can see someone ramming and jamming any made hand until you either flat call that turn bet, raise, or fold.

You've only seen 30 hands which is essentially nothing. He's an unknown at this point. Guys at this level, generally, aren't thinking about your hand.

On the flop, he's either got a made hand, made a hand, or he's drawing. If he's got a made hand (TT, JJ, QQ, AA), I think a C-Bet should be expected and he might fold with anything less than AA. If he made his hand on the flop (AK, KQ) the C-Bet is also standard. If he's drawing with hands like AQ, AJ, AT (yes, people do raise AT in EP at 25NL), his C-Bet is rep'ing AK and he would like you to fold.

Why he bet $1.88 into a $2 pot (excluding blinds) is beyond me but people do crazy stuff so . . . whatever.

The turn puts a possible flush on the board but is otherwise a pretty safe card (i.e. you aren't likely to have a 4 or be holding a hand that the 4 helped) so nothing much (except the possible flush) has changed.

So, he's probably thinking that his $1.88 bet didn't scare you off and neither hand has changed in value much unless you were drawing to the flush so why not throw a decision maker bet out there? You have given him no incentive to slow down. In other words, if you call, he has to give up on the hand (i.e check-call the river). If you raise, he has to fold. If you fold, he wins.

It looks to me like he's lost in the hand and he's pleading with you to tell him where he's at.

If I had to hazard a guess, I would say he probably had either a made hand smaller than a K or he had Ax (x being K - 10) and he's hoping that the turn card scared you as much as it scared him.

[pokeraussie]

^ Am I really worried about being beat to TT-QQ here? It's such a miniscule part of his opening range.

Even if you include these hands in his turn betting range, there is still enough air here to make calling correct.

[thefarang]

Well, I guess my bigger point was that if you had taken a more aggressive line against him pre-flop and on the flop you could easily narrow the range down. Since you didn't, that's why you're asking here.

[pokeraussie]

Narrow down his range by re-raising pre-flop? Sure it will do that, but there are inherent disadvantages which far outweigh the advantages imo.

For starters, versus a EP open it's completely overepping your hand.

All it really does is get worse hands to fold and opens up the possibility to folding the best hand to a 4 bet bluff, which this type of player would be well capable of doing.

Doing something just to avoid tough decisions post flop doesn't necessarily make it the correct play.

[321]

Even if you include these hands in his turn betting range, there is still enough air here to make calling correct.

You have nothing. Calling here is not an option. He's told you three times he has something. He's said he not afraid of the flush card either because 1) he doesn't think you have a flush, but he isn't giving a single club an easy draw, 2) he isn't afraid of a river club because he has KdQc or soenthing similar, 3) he has a monster, like the flush or AcKd, 4) he has nothing.

Additionally, he has bet about the pot three times now, so if he bets his likely bet is the pot (more likely all in since there isn't much difference). Would you call that bet if it cam 3h? Would you call that bet if it came Tc?